Noah II’s recent draw streak and Pyunik II’s unbeaten run hint at a tightly contested match, yet the model favours an away win. The probabilities are 33% for a home victory, 24% for a draw, and 43% for an away triumph, making the latter the single most likely outcome. With an expected total of 3.5 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals, the most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% probability. Noah’s home form shows 2.17 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against similar opposition, while Pyunik’s away record is 1.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Under 6.5 (93.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.9%), Over 1.5 (87.4%), Under 5.5 (85.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.7%), and Away +2 handicap (83.4%). All figures are presented as percentages, with each pick noted once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Noah II win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Noah II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.47
1.87
1.13
2.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.11
0.50
2.50
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.50
2.17
0.50
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
2.44
1.40
3.00
1.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.47
1.75
1.19
1.50
1.79
vs Stronger (13)
1.46
2.15
1.83
1.67
1.14
2.57
vs Similar (10)
1.90
0.80
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.14
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.1%
No
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
5.4%
0-2
5.3%
0-1
4.7%
2-3
4.4%
Noah II goals ↓
Pyunik II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.7%
5.3%
3.3%
1.5%
1
4.0%
10%
8.6%
5.4%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.5%
7.0%
4.4%
2.1%
3
2.2%
4.1%
3.8%
2.4%
1.1%
4
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Noah II goals (down), columns = Pyunik II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Noah II is 0.43 points worse than Pyunik II in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Noah II is 0.13 goals worse than Pyunik II in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Noah II is 0.50 goals worse than Pyunik II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Noah II or Draw
56.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
24%
43%
covers Noah II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Noah II or Pyunik II
76.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
24%
43%
covers Noah II + Pyunik II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pyunik II
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
24%
43%
covers Draw + Pyunik II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Noah II over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 3.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Noah II, so a minus line means Noah II give that many goals of a start and Pyunik II receive them. At -1, Noah II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Noah II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Noah II)
Noah II -2
6.6%
Draw -2
10.0%
Pyunik II +2
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Noah II)
Noah II -1
16.6%
Draw -1
16.4%
Pyunik II +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Noah II)
Noah II +1
56.9%
Draw +1
19.0%
Pyunik II -1
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Noah II)
Noah II +2
75.9%
Draw +2
13.2%
Pyunik II -2
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Noah II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.22
0.00
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.17
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.81
0.44
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.67
0.50
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.29
0.57
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Noah II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
1.44
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
0.94
0.75
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.46
1.17
1.17
0.86
1.71
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.30
0.71
0.43
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Noah II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Noah II and Pyunik II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Noah II and Pyunik II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Noah II and Pyunik II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Noah II and Pyunik II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II