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Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/10/2026
Time: 09:30
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Vs
20%
21%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.6 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Elva, carrying a 9.4% chance. Home side Nõmme Kalju II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. Elva, on the road, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.85 conceded against similar opposition. The probabilities for the match outcome are 20% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 59% for an away win, making an away win the model’s pick. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 6.5 (92.8%), Away +2 handicap (91.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.8%), Over 1.5 (88.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.9%) and Under 5.5 (84.7%). Both teams are coming off victories, with Nõmme Kalju II beating FC Tallinn 2-0 and Elva defeating Nõmme United II 1-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II win
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva win
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D22D02L05L14L03L02L03L24L20WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.201.502.441.501.93
vs Stronger (11)1.273.001.333.001.203.00
vs Similar (17)1.291.821.332.221.251.38
vs Weaker (2)4.501.004.001.005.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W31W60W22D21W30W01L10W00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.131.431.002.061.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.751.251.331.002.171.50
vs Weaker (6)1.830.672.001.001.750.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.4%
Under 2.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.0%
Under 3.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.1%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
7.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.6%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
5.3%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
03.6%5.6%7.3%5.6%3.2%
12.8%9.1%9.4%7.2%4.1%
22.3%5.3%6.1%4.6%2.7%
31.0%2.3%2.6%2.0%1.1%
40.3%0.7%0.9%0.6%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.50 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.66 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.92 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme Kalju II or Draw
41.2%
Avg Implied -
20%
21%
59%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II or Elva
78.8%
Avg Implied -
20%
21%
59%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Elva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Elva
80.0%
Avg Implied -
20%
21%
59%
covers Draw + Elva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
Under
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 3.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme Kalju II, so a minus line means Nõmme Kalju II give that many goals of a start and Elva receive them. At -1, Nõmme Kalju II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme Kalju II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -2
2.8%
Draw -2
5.7%
Elva +2
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -1
8.4%
Draw -1
11.5%
Elva +1
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +1
41.2%
Draw +1
21.0%
Elva -1
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +2
62.1%
Draw +2
17.7%
Elva -2
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D01L02L11D03L00D01L21W10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.770.810.750.930.79
vs Stronger (11)0.641.270.500.830.801.80
vs Similar (17)0.760.530.890.780.620.25
vs Weaker (2)3.000.002.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W20W00D20W00D01L00D00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.430.430.690.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.500.500.330.420.670.58
vs Weaker (6)0.830.501.000.500.750.50
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L03L03L00D02L02L03L10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.430.691.690.571.14
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.832.170.401.20
vs Similar (17)0.531.290.441.440.621.12
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D40W22D01L30W00D10W00D00DA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.000.571.380.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.250.751.000.581.500.92
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.7%-------
Under 6.592.8%-------
Away +2 handicap91.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals89.8%-------
Over 1.588.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.8%-------
Under 5.584.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals80.2%-------
Draw or Away80.0%-------
Away +1 handicap80.0%-------
Home or Away78.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals72.6%-------
Under 4.571.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
NKI wins
2
Draws
2
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva · H/A from NKI
DateH/AGameScore
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2
04/10/25AElva Vs NKI0-1
30/08/25HNKI Vs Elva1-1
11/05/25AElva Vs NKI2-1
08/03/25HNKI Vs Elva0-2

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs NKI0-2
23/08/26HNKI Vs Tartu Welco2-4
20/08/26HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev0-3
17/08/26ANõmme United II Vs NKI2-0
10/08/26AFlora II Vs NKI3-0
01/08/26HNKI Vs Maardu1-4
25/07/26HNKI Vs Flora II0-5
18/07/26HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
11/07/26AViimsi Vs NKI2-2
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ANõmme United II Vs ELV0-1
24/08/26HELV Vs Flora II0-0
20/08/26HELV Vs Maardu1-0
15/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs ELV1-0
12/08/26HELV Vs Joker3-0
08/08/26HELV Vs Tartu Welco2-1
01/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV2-2
22/07/26ALäänemaa Haapsalu Vs ELV0-6
16/07/26AViimsi Vs ELV1-3
11/07/26AFC Tallinn Vs ELV0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.09
HomeLLLLL1.04
AwayLDLLW1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%32%
AVG goals3.723.923.50
Over 1.5 %89%92%86%
Over 2.5 %76%79%73%
Over 3.5 %50%58%41%
Scored1.411.501.32
Conceded2.302.422.18
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet17%12%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.80
HomeWWWWD1.84
AwayWWDLW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.223.003.44
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.861.682.04
Conceded1.361.321.40
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
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Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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