The clash between Nõmme Kalju II and FC Tallinn is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40% for a Nõmme Kalju II victory, 26% for a draw and 33% for an FC Tallinn win. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 12.2% probability.
Nõmme Kalju II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages no goals scored and concedes two. FC Tallinn, on the road, averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.6% chance, and it has hit this target in the past.
The match is finely balanced, and while the home side is slightly favoured, the draw and away win probabilities keep the outcome uncertain.
Results analysis
The win for FC Tallinn was a surprise, extending their recent form after two straight defeats and proving the pre-match favourite, a home win at 40 percent, was wrong. The match finished 2-4, an away victory that left the model’s call incorrect. The model’s only other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its mark with an 81.6 percent chance. The home side, Nõmme Kalju II, had come off a win in their last game, while FC Tallinn were after a turnaround following a 0-2 loss. The final score of 2-4 confirmed the upset and the accuracy of the over-goals pick.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win✓ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
2.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.53
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.52
1.48
1.75
1.58
1.31
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.8%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.6%
12%
7.9%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.8%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.3%
4.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.14 points better than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.10 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.66).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.17 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.19 vs 2.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.76
0.92
0.83
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.17
0.00
0.50
1.25
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.72
0.83
0.75
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nõmme United
Viimsi
Tartu Welco
Elva
Flora II
FCI Levadia II
Tallinna Kalev II
Luunja
Phoenix