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Nõmme Kalju II vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 1-0
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Vs
25%
21%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 4.1 goals and a 22% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, a 8.3% probability, and the favoured result is an away win. Home side Nõmme Kalju II averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.83 conceded at home against similar opposition, while FC Tallinn, playing away, averages 2.0 scored and 1.69 conceded. The home win probability sits at 25%, the draw at 21%, and the away win at 55%. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 with a 91.9% chance, Over 2.5 at 77.0%, and BTTS Yes at 74.1%. Nõmme Kalju II recently returned from a win, while FC Tallinn has endured two straight defeats. The model’s picks, each with their own probability, highlight the expected offensive firepower and the likelihood of both sides finding the net.

Results analysis

The upset was clear: the pre-match favourite, FC Tallinn, was tipped to win with a 55% probability, yet the match finished 1-0 in favour of home side Nõmme Kalju II, ending their win and extending a poor run. The model’s prediction was therefore wrong. The model’s selections were also off: Over 1.5 goals, with a 91.9% chance, missed; Over 2.5 goals, at 77.0%, missed; and BTTS Yes, at 74.1%, missed. The final score of 1-0 confirms the home win, contradicting the model’s 55% away-win expectation and its high-probability goal-related picks.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II win✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-733D07L30W10W32W15L51W03L21W22DH·TAL29/05A·FC 03/06H·LUU14/06A·TAR19/06H·FCI30/06H·NÕM03/07A·LUU12/07H·TAR19/07A·FLO26/07H·VII04/08
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.451.502.581.502.30
vs Stronger (9)1.002.561.202.800.752.25
vs Similar (10)1.403.001.502.831.253.25
vs Weaker (3)3.330.333.000.003.500.50
Clean sheet %14% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-732W70W10W20W30W15L12L20W65W23LA·LUU29/05H·NÕM03/06H·FLO14/06A·FCI19/06A·TAL30/06H·TAR05/07A·VII14/07H·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.631.501.431.941.81
vs Stronger (4)0.502.000.001.501.002.50
vs Similar (23)1.831.651.601.602.001.69
vs Weaker (3)2.671.002.500.503.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
91.9%
Under 1.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
77.0%
Under 2.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.8%
Under 3.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
74.1%
No
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.3%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
6.8%
1-3
6.7%
2-1
5.6%
2-3
5.5%
0-2
5.1%
0-3
4.1%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
02.4%3.5%5.1%4.1%2.5%
12.1%7.5%8.3%6.7%4.1%
22.3%5.6%6.8%5.5%3.3%
31.3%3.1%3.7%3.0%1.8%
40.5%1.2%1.5%1.2%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.14 points better than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.10 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.66).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.17 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.19 vs 2.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L20W10W31W02L40W00D00D01LH·TAL29/05A·FC 03/06H·LUU14/06A·TAR19/06H·FCI30/06H·NÕM03/07A·LUU12/07H·TAR19/07A·FLO26/07H·VII04/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.820.751.080.700.50
vs Stronger (9)0.330.890.401.200.250.50
vs Similar (10)0.601.000.831.170.250.75
vs Weaker (3)2.330.002.000.002.500.00
Clean sheet %41% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D10W10W10W20W12L11D10W43W12LA·LUU29/05H·NÕM03/06H·FLO14/06A·FCI19/06A·TAL30/06H·TAR05/07A·VII14/07H·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.500.710.941.06
vs Stronger (4)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.960.400.900.851.00
vs Weaker (3)1.671.001.500.502.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W06L10W00D01L13L11D03L21W21WH·TAL29/05A·FC 03/06H·LUU14/06A·TAR19/06H·FCI30/06H·NÕM03/07A·LUU12/07H·TAR19/07A·FLO26/07H·VII04/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.640.751.500.801.80
vs Stronger (9)0.671.670.801.600.501.75
vs Similar (10)0.802.000.671.671.002.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W60W00D10W10W03L01L10W22D11DA·LUU29/05H·NÕM03/06H·FLO14/06A·FCI19/06A·TAL30/06H·TAR05/07A·VII14/07H·LUU19/07A·FCI26/07H·FLO02/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.000.711.000.75
vs Stronger (4)0.001.500.001.500.001.50
vs Similar (23)1.170.701.200.701.150.69
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.577.0%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes74.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
NKI wins
0
Draws
2
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II vs FC Tallinn · H/A from NKI
DateH/AGameScore
03/06/25AFC Tallinn Vs NKI7-0
20/04/25HNKI Vs FC Tallinn2-4

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/25HNKI Vs Viimsi2-2
26/07/25AFlora II Vs NKI1-2
19/07/25HNKI Vs Tartu Welco0-3
12/07/25ALuunja Vs NKI1-5
03/07/25HNKI Vs Nõmme United1-5
30/06/25HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II3-2
19/06/25ATartu Welco Vs NKI0-1
14/06/25HNKI Vs Luunja3-0
03/06/25AFC Tallinn Vs NKI7-0
29/05/25HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-3

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/25HFT Vs Flora II2-3
26/07/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT5-6
19/07/25HFT Vs Luunja2-0
14/07/25AViimsi Vs FT2-1
05/07/25HFT Vs Tartu Welco1-5
30/06/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FT0-3
19/06/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FT0-2
14/06/25HFT Vs Flora II1-0
03/06/25HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II7-0
29/05/25ALuunja Vs FT2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.18
HomeWWLLD0.92
AwayLLWWW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%25%50%
AVG goals3.954.083.80
Over 1.5 %91%92%90%
Over 2.5 %82%83%80%
Over 3.5 %50%58%40%
Scored1.501.501.50
Conceded2.452.582.30
BTTS55%58%50%
Clean Sheet14%8%20%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.46
HomeWWLWL1.32
AwayWWWLW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%36%48%
AVG goals3.443.523.36
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.862.001.72
Conceded1.581.521.64
BTTS60%64%56%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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