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Nõmme Kalju II vs FC Tallinn Prediction & Stats

Date: 24/10/2026
Time: 09:30
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Vs
24%
22%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme Kalju II start the match with a 26% chance to win, a 23% draw probability and a 52% chance for FC Tallinn to come away victorious, making the away win the model’s pick. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of three goals occurring 21% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.5% chance. Nõmme Kalju II, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.12 conceded, while FC Tallinn, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.09 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.9%), Under 6.5 (92.9%), Away +2 handicap (88.2%), Over 1.5 (88.0%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.9%), Under 5.5 (84.8%), and Away under 3.5 goals (83.6%). The recent form shows Nõmme Kalju II coming off a win after a string of losses, while FC Tallinn has endured two straight defeats.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II win
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D22D02L05L14L03L02L03L24L20WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.201.502.441.501.93
vs Stronger (11)1.273.001.333.001.203.00
vs Similar (17)1.291.821.332.221.251.38
vs Weaker (2)4.501.004.001.005.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L20W41W10W11D01L11D12L02L21WH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.971.601.801.802.13
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)1.581.961.211.862.002.08
vs Weaker (3)3.332.337.001.001.503.00
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.2%
Under 2.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
6.6%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-1
6.1%
0-1
5.2%
2-3
4.7%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
03.7%5.2%6.5%4.6%2.5%
13.2%9.5%9.2%6.6%3.5%
22.9%6.1%6.6%4.7%2.5%
31.4%2.9%3.1%2.2%1.2%
40.5%1.0%1.1%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.72 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.01 goals better than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.48 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme Kalju II or Draw
46.8%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
53%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II or FC Tallinn
77.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
53%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + FC Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Tallinn
75.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
22%
53%
covers Draw + FC Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme Kalju II, so a minus line means Nõmme Kalju II give that many goals of a start and FC Tallinn receive them. At -1, Nõmme Kalju II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme Kalju II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -2
3.9%
Draw -2
7.1%
FC Tallinn +2
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -1
11.1%
Draw -1
13.3%
FC Tallinn +1
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +1
46.8%
Draw +1
20.5%
FC Tallinn -1
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +2
67.3%
Draw +2
16.2%
FC Tallinn -2
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D01L02L11D03L00D01L21W10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.770.810.750.930.79
vs Stronger (11)0.641.270.500.830.801.80
vs Similar (17)0.760.530.890.780.620.25
vs Weaker (2)3.000.002.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W00D00D11D01L11D11D01L01LH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.401.070.670.93
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.461.040.291.070.671.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L03L03L00D02L02L03L10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.430.691.690.571.14
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.832.170.401.20
vs Similar (17)0.531.290.441.440.621.12
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D41W10W00D00D00D01L01L20WH·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08A·MAA15/08H·NÕM20/08A·FCI23/08H·NÕM29/08A·VII03/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.971.200.731.131.20
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (26)1.120.920.930.791.331.08
vs Weaker (3)2.001.675.000.000.502.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Under 6.592.9%-------
Away +2 handicap88.9%-------
Away over 0.5 goals88.3%-------
Over 1.588.0%-------
Under 5.584.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals83.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.8%-------
Home or Away77.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.9%-------
Draw or Away75.6%-------
Away +1 handicap75.6%-------
Under 4.571.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
NKI wins
0
Draws
3
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II vs FC Tallinn · H/A from NKI
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs NKI0-2
27/09/25AFC Tallinn Vs NKI2-1
09/08/25HNKI Vs FC Tallinn1-0
03/06/25AFC Tallinn Vs NKI7-0
20/04/25HNKI Vs FC Tallinn2-4

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs NKI0-2
23/08/26HNKI Vs Tartu Welco2-4
20/08/26HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev0-3
17/08/26ANõmme United II Vs NKI2-0
10/08/26AFlora II Vs NKI3-0
01/08/26HNKI Vs Maardu1-4
25/07/26HNKI Vs Flora II0-5
18/07/26HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
11/07/26AViimsi Vs NKI2-2
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AViimsi Vs FT1-2
29/08/26HFT Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-2
23/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs FT2-1
20/08/26HFT Vs Nõmme United II1-1
15/08/26AMaardu Vs FT1-0
08/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs FT1-1
01/08/26HFT Vs Flora II1-0
28/07/26HFT Vs Tallinna FC Zapoos4-1
18/07/26ATartu Welco Vs FT0-2
11/07/26HFT Vs Elva0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.09
HomeLLLLL1.04
AwayLDLLW1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%32%
AVG goals3.723.923.50
Over 1.5 %89%92%86%
Over 2.5 %76%79%73%
Over 3.5 %50%58%41%
Scored1.411.501.32
Conceded2.302.422.18
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet17%12%23%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.24
HomeLWWDL1.25
AwayWDLLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.683.294.04
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %46%38%54%
Scored1.801.711.88
Conceded1.881.582.15
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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