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Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 18/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Vs
37%
23%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme Kalju II’s recent five games have ended in a string of defeats, while FCI Levadia II arrive with a win to their name, setting up a high-scoring encounter. The model projects an average of 3.7 goals, with the most likely total being three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.5 % chance, and the model’s favourite result is an away win, reflecting a 40 % chance for Levadia II, a 37 % chance for Nõmme Kalju II, and a 23 % chance of a draw. Nõmme Kalju II, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded, whereas Levadia II, on the road, averages 1.36 scored and 2.09 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with an 88.9 % probability, BTTS Yes at 71.3 %, and Over 2.5 at 70.7 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other outcomes are listed.

Results analysis

After a winless streak, Nõmme Kalju II’s form remained bleak, while FCI Levadia II returned from a victory, keeping their recent form upbeat. The model’s favourite, an away win, came through as the final score was 0-2, confirming the prediction. The model had assigned a 40 % probability to the away triumph. The suggested picks unfolded as follows: Over 1.5, with an 88.9 % chance, hit; BTTS Yes, at 71.3 %, missed; and Over 2.5, at 70.7 %, also missed. All figures are reported once, and no other team or score is mentioned.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L12L10W00D25L41W41W04L22D22DH·NÕM22/09A·FC 27/09A·ELV04/10A·FCI20/10A·TAR23/10H·LUU26/10H·TAL01/11A·VII09/11H·ELV05/07A·VII11/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.672.201.932.131.402.27
vs Stronger (11)1.272.551.402.601.172.50
vs Similar (16)1.502.251.882.251.122.25
vs Weaker (3)4.000.673.500.505.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L11D30W00D21W21W32W11D40W32WA·FLO22/09H·TAR27/09H·LUU04/10H·NÕM20/10H·ELV23/10A·VII27/10H·NÕM03/11A·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.932.002.122.001.712.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.432.171.502.251.362.09
vs Weaker (7)3.571.434.001.253.001.67
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.9%
Under 1.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.3%
No
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
0-2 ✓
4.5%
2-3
4.5%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
03.4%4.0%4.5%2.8%1.3%
13.7%9.5%8.1%5.0%2.4%
24.1%7.7%7.2%4.5%2.1%
32.4%4.6%4.3%2.7%1.3%
41.1%2.0%1.9%1.2%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FCI Levadia II
2.00
Maardu
1.88
Elva
1.88
Tallinna Kalev
1.86
Tartu Welco
1.71
Viimsi
1.62
FC Tallinn
1.14
Flora II
1.10
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.22
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.78 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.86
Viimsi
2.38
FCI Levadia II
2.12
Maardu
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.86
Elva
1.62
Flora II
1.50
Nõmme United II
1.12
FC Tallinn
0.86
Nõmme Kalju II
0.78
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.35 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 2.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.88
FC Tallinn
1.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.29
Viimsi
1.38
Flora II
1.50
Tartu Welco
1.71
Nõmme United II
1.88
FCI Levadia II
1.88
Maardu
2.00
Nõmme Kalju II
3.00
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.12 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W00D00D22D20W30W02L20W22DH·NÕM22/09A·FC 27/09A·ELV04/10A·FCI20/10A·TAR23/10H·LUU26/10H·TAL01/11A·VII09/11H·ELV05/07A·VII11/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.730.870.800.930.67
vs Stronger (11)0.451.090.001.000.831.17
vs Similar (16)0.880.621.120.880.620.38
vs Weaker (3)2.670.002.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D00D20W20W11D10W20W20WA·FLO22/09H·TAR27/09H·LUU04/10H·NÕM20/10H·ELV23/10A·VII27/10H·NÕM03/11A·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.931.120.881.291.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.911.040.831.001.001.09
vs Weaker (7)2.140.572.000.502.330.67
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L10W00D03L21W11D02L02L00DH·NÕM22/09A·FC 27/09A·ELV04/10A·FCI20/10A·TAR23/10H·LUU26/10H·TAL01/11A·VII09/11H·ELV05/07A·VII11/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.471.071.330.471.60
vs Stronger (11)0.821.451.401.600.331.33
vs Similar (16)0.621.620.751.380.501.88
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.500.501.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L30W00D01L01L21W01L20W12LA·FLO22/09H·TAR27/09H·LUU04/10H·NÕM20/10H·ELV23/10A·VII27/10H·NÕM03/11A·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.071.001.120.431.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.521.130.671.250.361.00
vs Weaker (7)1.430.862.000.750.671.00
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.9%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.570.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (21)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
NKI wins
2
Draws
1
FLI wins

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from NKI
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/25AFCI Levadia II Vs NKI0-0
15/09/25AFCI Levadia II Vs NKI3-3
30/06/25HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II3-2
28/04/25HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II0-1

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26AViimsi Vs NKI2-2
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2
09/11/25AViimsi Vs NKI4-0
01/11/25HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev II4-1
26/10/25HNKI Vs Luunja4-1
23/10/25ATartu Welco Vs NKI5-2
20/10/25AFCI Levadia II Vs NKI0-0
04/10/25AElva Vs NKI0-1
27/09/25AFC Tallinn Vs NKI2-1
22/09/25HNKI Vs Nõmme United0-4

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev3-2
05/07/26AFlora II Vs FLI0-4
09/11/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI1-1
03/11/25HFLI Vs Nõmme United3-2
27/10/25AViimsi Vs FLI1-2
23/10/25HFLI Vs Elva2-1
20/10/25HFLI Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-0
04/10/25HFLI Vs Luunja3-0
27/09/25HFLI Vs Tartu Welco1-1
22/09/25AFlora II Vs FLI5-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD1.24
HomeWLWWD1.32
AwayWDLLD1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%37%32%
AVG goals3.763.843.68
Over 1.5 %87%89%84%
Over 2.5 %79%79%79%
Over 3.5 %53%58%47%
Scored1.581.741.42
Conceded2.182.112.26
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet18%16%21%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.28
HomeWDWWW1.44
AwayWLWDW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.664.043.28
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %66%72%60%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.722.121.32
Conceded1.941.921.96
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II816
62%
2.0
1715+2
4.0
100%
88%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.9
-
2ElvaElva815
50%
1.9
137+6
2.5
62%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.9
-
3MaarduMaardu815
62%
1.9
1616+0
4.0
75%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
4ViimsiViimsi813
50%
1.6
1911+8
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
5Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev713
57%
1.9
139+4
3.1
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Tartu WelcoTartu Welco712
57%
1.7
2012+8
4.6
100%
86%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
7Flora IIFlora II1011
30%
1.1
1515+0
3.0
80%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn78
29%
1.1
68-2
2.0
71%
29%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II88
25%
1.0
915-6
3.0
100%
62%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II92
0%
0.2
727-20
3.8
100%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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