The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.5 goals and a 3-goal total most likely. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.3 % chance, and the model’s pick is an away win. Home side Nõmme Kalju II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded. Away side Flora II, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 37 % home win, 24 % draw, and 39 % away win. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals with an 87 % probability. Recent form shows Nõmme Kalju II on a five-match losing streak after a 2-4 defeat to Tartu Welco, while Flora II comes off a draw, 0-0 against Elva. The model’s selection indicates a strong likelihood of more than 1.5 goals, reinforcing the expectation of a lively match.
Results analysis
The win extends Flora II’s run, after a draw in their last game, and the final score of 0-5 confirmed the model’s prediction that the away side would triumph. The pre-match favourite was the away win, given a 39 % chance, and the model’s call was correct. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 87 % probability, and it hit as the match produced five goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 10.3 %, but the actual result was a 0-5 rout. The home side, Nõmme Kalju II, finished with five consecutive losses, while Flora II’s away form had been stronger against weaker opponents.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win✓ Hit
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.13
1.93
2.00
1.40
2.27
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
2.40
1.75
2.25
1.17
2.50
vs Similar (17)
1.41
2.24
1.67
2.22
1.12
2.25
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
0.67
3.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.83
1.60
1.67
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.15
2.05
1.30
1.80
1.00
2.30
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
1.40
2.20
1.40
1.40
1.40
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.3%
Under 2.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.6%
Under 3.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.7%
No
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.6%
2-0
4.6%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.5%
4.8%
2.8%
1.2%
1
4.4%
10%
8.2%
4.8%
2.1%
2
4.6%
8.0%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.6%
4.6%
4.0%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FCI Levadia II
2.00
Maardu
1.88
Elva
1.88
Tallinna Kalev
1.86
Tartu Welco
1.71
Viimsi
1.62
FC Tallinn
1.14
Flora II
1.10
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.22
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.88 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.86
Viimsi
2.38
FCI Levadia II
2.12
Maardu
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.86
Elva
1.62
Flora II
1.50
Nõmme United II
1.12
FC Tallinn
0.86
Nõmme Kalju II
0.78
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.72 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.88
FC Tallinn
1.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.29
Viimsi
1.38
Flora II
1.50
Tartu Welco
1.71
Nõmme United II
1.88
FCI Levadia II
1.88
Maardu
2.00
Nõmme Kalju II
3.00
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.50 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
1.00
0.89
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
1.15
0.70
0.90
0.50
1.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
0.60
0.40
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.43
1.07
1.27
0.47
1.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.40
1.75
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.59
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.88
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.90
0.60
0.90
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
1.10
1.60
1.00
0.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FCI Levadia II
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II