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Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/09/2026
Time: 14:30
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Vs
21%
22%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme Kalju II’s recent five matches have left them in a slump, losing each game and conceding an average of three goals per outing. Their home form against stronger opposition shows a low 1.33 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. In contrast, Flora II, coming off a win, has been prolific on the road, averaging two goals scored and just 1.17 conceded against weaker teams. This attacking edge suggests a high-scoring affair, with the model predicting an average of 3.7 goals. The most likely total is three, with a 21 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Flora II, with a 9.2 % probability. The model favours an away win, giving a 58 % chance for Flora II, 21 % for a draw and 21 % for Nõmme Kalju II to win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9 %), Under 6.5 (92.0 %), Away +2 handicap (90.7 %), Away over 0.5 goals (90.0 %), Over 1.5 (89.0 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.9 %) and Under 5.5 (83.3 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win
56.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D22D02L05L14L03L02L03L24L20WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.201.502.441.501.93
vs Stronger (11)1.273.001.333.001.203.00
vs Similar (17)1.291.821.332.221.251.38
vs Weaker (2)4.501.004.001.005.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D13L00D50W01L30W12L21W00D50WA·NÕM12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NÕM25/07A·FC 01/08H·NÕM10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.532.081.771.821.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.171.941.622.250.801.70
vs Weaker (12)3.080.922.801.003.290.86
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.3%
Under 2.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
0-1
5.9%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.3%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
04.0%5.9%7.4%5.3%2.9%
13.2%9.7%9.5%6.9%3.8%
22.6%5.7%6.2%4.5%2.4%
31.1%2.5%2.7%1.9%1.1%
40.4%0.8%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.77 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.92 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.34 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme Kalju II or Draw
43.5%
Avg Implied -
21%
22%
57%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II or Flora II
77.9%
Avg Implied -
21%
22%
57%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora II
78.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
22%
57%
covers Draw + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme Kalju II, so a minus line means Nõmme Kalju II give that many goals of a start and Flora II receive them. At -1, Nõmme Kalju II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme Kalju II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.1%
Flora II +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -1
9.1%
Draw -1
12.2%
Flora II +1
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +1
43.5%
Draw +1
21.1%
Flora II -1
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +2
64.6%
Draw +2
17.2%
Flora II -2
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D01L02L11D03L00D01L21W10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.770.810.750.930.79
vs Stronger (11)0.641.270.500.830.801.80
vs Similar (17)0.760.530.890.780.620.25
vs Weaker (2)3.000.002.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D20W00D30W01L00D00D30WA·NÕM12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NÕM25/07A·FC 01/08H·NÕM10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.080.691.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.890.751.000.300.80
vs Weaker (12)1.830.171.600.202.000.14
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.8%
Under 1.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L03L03L00D02L02L03L10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.430.691.690.571.14
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.832.170.401.20
vs Similar (17)0.531.290.441.440.621.12
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L00D30W01L00D11D21W00D20WA·NÕM12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NÕM25/07A·FC 01/08H·NÕM10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.931.001.080.820.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.671.060.881.250.500.90
vs Weaker (12)1.250.751.200.801.290.71
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.4%
Under 0.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.5%
Under 1.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.2%
Under 2.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.3%
Under
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals99.0%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.8%-------
Under 7.597.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.7%-------
Under 6.593.7%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals92.0%-------
Away +2 handicap90.9%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals90.4%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals89.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals88.6%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals87.1%-------
Over 1.587.0%-------
Under 5.586.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.8%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals83.9%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals83.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals82.5%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals78.8%-------
Draw or Away78.7%-------
Away +1 handicap78.7%-------
Home or Away77.9%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals77.3%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals74.9%-------
Under 4.573.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals72.6%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals71.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
NKI wins
0
Draws
3
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II · H/A from NKI
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/26AFlora II Vs NKI3-0
25/07/26HNKI Vs Flora II0-5
18/09/25HNKI Vs Flora II3-0
26/07/25AFlora II Vs NKI1-2
19/05/25AFlora II Vs NKI3-0
06/04/25HNKI Vs Flora II2-1

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs NKI0-2
23/08/26HNKI Vs Tartu Welco2-4
20/08/26HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev0-3
17/08/26ANõmme United II Vs NKI2-0
10/08/26AFlora II Vs NKI3-0
01/08/26HNKI Vs Maardu1-4
25/07/26HNKI Vs Flora II0-5
18/07/26HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
11/07/26AViimsi Vs NKI2-2
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev5-0
24/08/26AElva Vs FI0-0
21/08/26HFI Vs Viimsi2-1
15/08/26ATartu Welco Vs FI2-1
10/08/26HFI Vs Nõmme Kalju II3-0
01/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs FI1-0
25/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs FI0-5
22/07/26ATrans Narva Vs FI0-0
18/07/26HFI Vs Maardu1-3
12/07/26ANõmme United II Vs FI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.09
HomeLLLLL1.04
AwayLDLLW1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%32%
AVG goals3.723.923.50
Over 1.5 %89%92%86%
Over 2.5 %76%79%73%
Over 3.5 %50%58%41%
Scored1.411.501.32
Conceded2.302.422.18
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet17%12%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.32
HomeLLWWW1.65
AwayDWLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%26%
AVG goals3.383.523.26
Over 1.5 %82%87%78%
Over 2.5 %60%61%59%
Over 3.5 %42%43%41%
Scored1.862.171.59
Conceded1.521.351.67
BTTS48%43%52%
Clean Sheet32%43%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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