The upcoming match between Nõmme Kalju II and Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia: Esiliiga A league on August 20th is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with 3.6 goals on average anticipated. Tallinna Kalev's recent form note is coming off a draw, having drawn 1-1 against FC Tallinn in their last match. However, Nõmme Kalju II has struggled, losing 4 consecutive matches, including a 0-3 defeat to Flora II.
The model predicts an Away win as the most likely result, with a probability of 56%. The expected total goals of 3.6 suggests a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-2, with a probability of 9.4%. Nõmme Kalju II averages 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home, while Tallinna Kalev averages 0.93 goals scored and 3.27 conceded away against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the Away win, with the Away win percentage at 56%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 selection, with a probability of 88.1%. The home win percentage is 22%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the Away win percentage is 56%.
Results analysis
Tallinna Kalev continued their two-game winning run to secure a 0-3 victory over Nõmme Kalju II, extending the away side’s form. The model’s favourite, an Away win at 55 %, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted outcome. The model’s selection of Home under 2.5 HT goals, hit at 98.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.8 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.9 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.7 %, Away +2 handicap at 89.8 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 88.8 %, Over 1.5 at 88.0 %, and Under 2.5 HT goals at 84.0 % all hit. Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s result is noted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.68
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.92
Dafabet
3.75
Superbet
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.21
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.40
Betfair
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Tallinna Kalev win✓ Hit
54.9%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.67
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.70
Superbet
1.69
William Hil
1.67
Dafabet
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.67
2.13
1.33
2.27
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.64
1.20
2.80
1.17
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.25
2.19
1.50
2.12
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
0.67
3.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
2.40
1.77
2.00
2.06
2.71
vs Stronger (17)
1.53
2.76
1.57
2.29
1.50
3.10
vs Similar (12)
2.00
2.08
2.00
1.67
2.00
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.0%
@ 1.06+0.4%
Under 1.5
12.0%
@ 7.50-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.2%
@ 1.27-3.0%
Under 2.5
30.8%
@ 3.30+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.9%
@ 1.68-7.0%
Under 3.5
52.1%
@ 2.04+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Unibet
1.92
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.4%
@ 1.31-3.2%
No
32.6%
@ 3.15+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.30
No
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
William Hil
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.4%@ 9.25+4.8%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.62+4.4%
1-3
6.8%@ 10.50+2.8%
0-2
6.7%@ 11.50+3.1%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.12+2.3%
2-1
5.9%@ 12.25+2.4%
0-1
5.3%@ 13.50+2.2%
0-3 ✓
4.9%@ 14.50+2.0%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
5.3%
6.7%
4.9%
2.7%
1
3.0%
9.4%
9.3%
6.8%
3.7%
2
2.7%
5.9%
6.4%
4.7%
2.6%
3
1.2%
2.7%
3.0%
2.2%
1.2%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.12 points worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.72 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme Kalju II is 0.95 goals worse than Tallinna Kalev in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme Kalju II or Draw✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied 45.9% · @ 2.00
Edge
-0.8%
23%
22%
55%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.14
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Nõmme Kalju II or Tallinna Kalev✓ Hit
77.9%
Avg Implied 78.9% · @ 1.16
Edge
-0.9%
23%
22%
55%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Draw or Tallinna Kalev✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.22
Edge
+1.8%
23%
22%
55%
covers Draw + Tallinna Kalev
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.9%
@ 1.20-1.7%
Under
25.1%
@ 3.92+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
3.75
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.3%
@ 1.98-6.0%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.71+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.84
Under
Unibet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 4.10-5.9%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.17+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.8%
@ 1.03-0.7%
Under
11.2%
@ 8.80+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.03
Under
1xBet
8.80
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
64.3%
@ 1.36-2.6%
Under
35.7%
@ 2.75+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.55
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
37.4%
@ 2.12-5.8%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.61+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.52
Tallinna Kalev over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 3.75-6.4%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.20+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.19
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme Kalju II, so a minus line means Nõmme Kalju II give that many goals of a start and Tallinna Kalev receive them. At -1, Nõmme Kalju II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme Kalju II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tallinna Kalev
Nõmme Kalju II -2
3.5%
Draw -2
6.7%
Tallinna Kalev +2
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tallinna Kalev
Nõmme Kalju II -1
10.2%
@ 5.00-5.8%
Draw -1
12.8%
@ 4.40-5.5%
Tallinna Kalev +1
77.0%
@ 1.22+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
5.00
Draw
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
1.22
Handicap +1 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tallinna Kalev
Nõmme Kalju II +1
45.1%
@ 1.95+1.7%
Draw +1
20.7%
@ 3.70-2.1%
Tallinna Kalev -1
34.3%
@ 2.49+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
1.79
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.40
Away
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Handicap +2 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tallinna Kalev
Nõmme Kalju II +2
65.7%
@ 1.27+2.4%
Draw +2
16.7%
@ 4.50-1.2%
Tallinna Kalev -2
17.6%
@ 4.30-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.27
Draw
Unibet
4.50
Away
Unibet
4.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.67
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.18
0.20
0.80
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.56
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.85
0.85
0.65
1.29
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.47
0.71
1.00
0.30
1.80
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.8%
Under 0.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.9%
Under 1.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.0%
Under 2.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.47
0.80
1.47
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.45
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.62
0.50
1.38
0.50
1.88
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna Kalev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.30
0.92
1.15
1.41
1.41
vs Stronger (17)
1.06
1.29
0.86
1.29
1.20
1.30
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.42
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.8%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.0%
1.06
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.04
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
1.17
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
82.2%
1.20
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.19
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.9%
1.16
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
77.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
77.0%
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-
-
-
-1.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II