Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II’s recent win over FC Tallinn suggests a brief lift in confidence, yet their home form against stronger opponents shows a modest 2.0 goals per match while conceding 1.0. Tartu Welco, on the road, has been prolific, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker teams, and their last defeat to Viimsi has not dampened their attacking edge. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and the most likely total being three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.2% chance. The favoured outcome is an away win, with probabilities of a home win at 25%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 50%. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 83.6% probability. All figures are expressed as percentages and no other selections are listed.

The win extends Nõmme Kalju II’s streak of five matches, while Tartu Welco returns from a defeat after a brief run of victories. The final score of 0-4 confirmed the away win that the model had predicted, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model’s selection was correct. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, at an 83.6% probability, hit as the match produced four goals. The most likely total of three goals, with a 22% chance, did not materialise, but the scoreline still aligned with the model’s overall assessment. The outcome matched the predicted result and the key selection.