Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2026

Time: 12:00

Final 2-4

Nõmme Kalju II

15%

17%

68%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Tartu Welco

Estonia: Esiliiga A

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Tartu Welco is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 65% chance of victory. The model rates them highly due to their impressive away form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 2.57 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. In contrast, Nõmme Kalju II struggles at home, conceding an average of 2.73 goals and scoring only 1.18.

The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.1 goals and a most likely total of 6+ goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a probability of 8.4%. Nõmme Kalju II's recent form is a concern, having lost 4 straight matches at home, while Tartu Welco is coming off a win.

The model's selections include Over 1.5 (92.5%), Over 2.5 (78.2%), and BTTS Yes (71.2%). The probabilities for the match result are: home win 17%, draw 18%, and away win 65%. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 (92.5%), Over 2.5 (78.2%), and BTTS Yes (71.2%).

Results analysis

The win extends Tartu Welco’s three-game winning run, while Nõmme Kalju II end a five-match losing streak. The final score was 2-4, confirming the away win that the model had picked with a 68 % probability. The model’s call was correct. Every suggested selection hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.4 %, Under 7.5 at 94.2 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 94.0 %, Away +2 handicap at 93.9 %, and Over 1.5 at 92.3 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure was mentioned only once.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss

14.8%

Avg Implied 10.0% · @ 9.05

Edge

+4.8%

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

11.00

BetVictor

11.00

Marathonbet

11.00

1xBet

11.00

William Hil

10.00

Draw✗ Miss

17.2%

Avg Implied 13.6% · @ 6.69

Edge

+3.6%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

7.99

Marathonbet

7.60

1xBet

7.60

Betfair

7.50

William Hil

7.00

Tartu Welco win✓ Hit

68.0%

Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.19

Edge

-8.4%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

1.30

Superbet

1.30

Unibet

1.24

Bet365

1.22

10Bet

1.18

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.7

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

2.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.50	2.07	1.56	2.19	1.43	1.93
vs Stronger (11)	1.18	2.64	1.20	2.80	1.17	2.50
vs Similar (16)	1.25	1.94	1.33	2.22	1.14	1.57
vs Weaker (3)	4.00	0.67	3.50	0.50	5.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	20% (-3pp vs league)

This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

4.5

Avg scored

2.7

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.60	1.60	2.54	1.54	2.65	1.65
vs Stronger (1)	1.00	5.00	-	-	1.00	5.00
vs Similar (20)	2.60	1.60	2.40	1.60	2.80	1.60
vs Weaker (9)	2.78	1.22	3.00	1.33	2.67	1.17
Clean sheet %	27% (+3pp vs league)

This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

92.3%

@ 1.04+1.3%

Under 1.5

7.7%

@ 10.50-1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.05

Betfair

1.04

Under

Betfair

11.00

1xBet

10.00

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

77.8%

@ 1.16-1.3%

Under 2.5

22.2%

@ 4.40+1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.19

Bet365

1.17

Betfair

1.14

Superbet

1.14

Under

Betfair

4.80

Bet365

4.50

Superbet

4.30

1xBet

4.00

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

58.9%

@ 1.45-3.8%

Under 3.5

41.1%

@ 2.44+3.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.48

Marathonbet

1.48

Pinnacle

1.48

Betfair

1.47

Superbet

1.42

Under

Betfair

2.63

Superbet

2.55

Unibet

2.43

Pinnacle

2.36

Marathonbet

2.33

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

69.2%

@ 1.49+6.8%

30.8%

@ 2.46-6.8%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

BetVictor

1.53

1xBet

1.52

Marathonbet

1.52

Betfair

1.50

William Hil

1.50

Superbet

3.00

Betfair

2.50

William Hil

2.40

1xBet

2.32

BetVictor

2.30

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-2

8.4%@ 9.50+3.9%

1-3

7.9%@ 9.00+3.2%

1-1

6.6%@ 15.00+3.8%

0-2

6.4%@ 9.58+2.0%

0-3

6.0%@ 8.92+1.2%

1-4

5.5%@ 10.50+1.5%

2-2

5.5%@ 17.33+3.1%

2-3

5.2%@ 15.67+2.4%

Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓

	Tartu Welco goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.2%	4.0%	6.4%	6.0%	4.2%
1	1.5%	6.6%	8.4%	7.9%	5.5%
2	1.4%	3.9%	5.5%	5.2%	3.6%
3	0.6%	1.7%	2.4%	2.3%	1.6%
4	0.2%	0.6%	0.8%	0.7%	0.5%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Maardu

2.00

Elva

2.00

FCI Levadia II

1.78

Tallinna Kalev

1.62

Viimsi

1.60

Tartu Welco

1.50

Flora II

1.27

FC Tallinn

1.22

Nõmme United II

0.89

Nõmme Kalju II

0.50

Nõmme Kalju II is 1.00 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Tartu Welco

2.62

Viimsi

2.30

Maardu

2.22

FCI Levadia II

2.11

Flora II

1.82

Tallinna Kalev

1.62

Elva

1.56

Nõmme United II

1.00

Nõmme Kalju II

0.90

FC Tallinn

0.89

Nõmme Kalju II is 1.73 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 2.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Elva

0.78

FC Tallinn

1.22

Flora II

1.36

Viimsi

1.40

Tallinna Kalev

1.75

Nõmme United II

1.78

Tartu Welco

1.88

Maardu

2.00

FCI Levadia II

2.11

Nõmme Kalju II

2.70

Nõmme Kalju II is 0.83 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Nõmme Kalju II or Draw✗ Miss

32.0%

Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.89

Edge

+8.4%

15%

17%

68%

covers Nõmme Kalju II + Draw

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

4.60

1xBet

4.50

Betfair

4.50

Marathonbet

4.50

Bet365

4.00

Nõmme Kalju II or Tartu Welco✓ Hit

82.8%

Avg Implied 87.0% · @ 1.06

Edge

-4.1%

15%

17%

68%

covers Nõmme Kalju II + Tartu Welco

Best 5 market prices

Superbet

1.10

William Hil

1.08

10Bet

1.08

Bet365

1.06

Betfair

1.06

Draw or Tartu Welco✓ Hit

85.2%

Avg Implied 89.4% · @ 1.03

Edge

-4.2%

15%

17%

68%

covers Draw + Tartu Welco

Best 5 market prices

Superbet

1.06

William Hil

1.04

Betfair

1.03

1xBet

1.03

Bet365

1.03

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

73.0%

@ 1.41+7.8%

Under

27.0%

@ 2.64-7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.49

1xBet

1.47

Superbet

1.26

Under

Superbet

3.15

1xBet

2.39

Pinnacle

2.37

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

37.6%

@ 2.85+5.2%

Under

62.4%

@ 1.37-5.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.34

1xBet

3.34

Unibet

2.38

Superbet

2.32

Under

Superbet

1.51

Unibet

1.44

Marathonbet

1.26

1xBet

1.26

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

14.5%

@ 6.95+1.3%

Under

85.5%

@ 1.06-1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

9.00

Superbet

4.90

Under

Superbet

1.10

1xBet

1.02

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

4.4%

Under

95.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Tartu Welco over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

94.0%

Under

6.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Tartu Welco over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

77.0%

@ 1.15-2.3%

Under

23.0%

@ 4.38+2.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.16

Superbet

1.13

Under

1xBet

4.40

Superbet

4.35

Tartu Welco over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

53.2%

@ 1.48-8.5%

Under

46.8%

@ 2.38+8.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.52

Unibet

1.49

1xBet

1.45

Marathonbet

1.45

Under

1xBet

2.48

Marathonbet

2.48

Superbet

2.30

Unibet

2.25

Tartu Welco over/under 3.5Actual: Over

Over

30.9%

@ 2.22-10.1%

Under

69.1%

@ 1.55+10.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.32

Unibet

2.23

Pinnacle

2.21

Marathonbet

2.18

1xBet

2.18

Under

Marathonbet

1.58

1xBet

1.58

Pinnacle

1.57

Superbet

1.51

Unibet

1.50

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme Kalju II, so a minus line means Nõmme Kalju II give that many goals of a start and Tartu Welco receive them. At -1, Nõmme Kalju II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme Kalju II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tartu Welco

Nõmme Kalju II -2

1.9%

Draw -2

4.1%

Tartu Welco +2

93.9%

Best 5 market prices

Home

No market prices yet.

Draw

No market prices yet.

Away

No market prices yet.

Handicap -1 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tartu Welco

Nõmme Kalju II -1

6.1%

Draw -1

8.8%

Tartu Welco +1

85.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

No market prices yet.

Draw

No market prices yet.

Away

No market prices yet.

Handicap +1 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Tartu Welco

Nõmme Kalju II +1

32.0%

@ 4.50+12.4%

Draw +1

19.4%

@ 4.55+0.1%

Tartu Welco -1

48.6%

@ 1.44-12.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Marathonbet

4.50

Draw

Marathonbet

4.55

Away

Marathonbet

1.44

Handicap +2 (Nõmme Kalju II)Actual: Draw

Nõmme Kalju II +2

51.4%

@ 2.33+14.1%

Draw +2

18.9%

@ 4.04-2.6%

Tartu Welco -2

29.6%

@ 2.12-11.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

2.50

10Bet

2.45

Marathonbet

2.43

Unibet

1.93

Draw

Marathonbet

4.25

10Bet

4.20

Betfair

4.20

Unibet

3.50

Away

Unibet

2.23

10Bet

2.10

Betfair

2.10

Marathonbet

2.05

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.87	0.73	0.81	0.69	0.93	0.79
vs Stronger (11)	0.55	1.18	0.20	0.80	0.83	1.50
vs Similar (16)	0.75	0.56	0.89	0.78	0.57	0.29
vs Weaker (3)	2.67	0.00	2.00	0.00	4.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+30pp vs league)

This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.17	0.93	1.08	0.92	1.24	0.94
vs Stronger (1)	1.00	3.00	-	-	1.00	3.00
vs Similar (20)	1.30	1.00	1.10	0.90	1.50	1.10
vs Weaker (9)	0.89	0.56	1.00	1.00	0.83	0.33
Clean sheet %	43% (+20pp vs league)

This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

78.9%

@ 1.10-4.3%

Under 0.5

21.1%

@ 5.46+4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.12

1xBet

1.11

Betfair

1.11

Superbet

1.08

Under

Betfair

6.00

1xBet

5.50

Superbet

5.35

William Hil

5.00

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

40.9%

@ 1.60-16.2%

Under 1.5

59.1%

@ 2.13+16.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.65

William Hil

1.65

1xBet

1.65

Pinnacle

1.64

BetVictor

1.62

Under

Betfair

2.25

Superbet

2.25

Unibet

2.16

BetVictor

2.15

10Bet

2.10

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

16.3%

@ 2.86-15.8%

Under 2.5

83.7%

@ 1.35+15.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

3.00

1xBet

2.90

Betfair

2.88

Superbet

2.65

Under

Superbet

1.39

Betfair

1.36

1xBet

1.34

William Hil

1.30

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

34.4%

@ 2.38-4.2%

Under

65.6%

@ 1.50+4.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.61

1xBet

2.47

Superbet

2.07

Under

Superbet

1.65

1xBet

1.44

Pinnacle

1.40

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

7.9%

@ 8.45-3.1%

Under

92.1%

@ 1.04+3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

8.45

Under

1xBet

1.04

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.8%

@ 11.00-7.6%

Under

99.2%

@ 1.01+7.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

11.00

Under

1xBet

1.01

Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

64.8%

@ 1.19-11.6%

Under

35.2%

@ 3.84+11.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.19

Under

1xBet

3.84

Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

28.8%

@ 2.04-16.2%

Under

71.2%

@ 1.68+16.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.15

Pinnacle

2.06

1xBet

1.92

Under

1xBet

1.78

Pinnacle

1.64

Superbet

1.61

Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

5.6%

@ 3.80-18.6%

Under

94.4%

@ 1.21+18.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

3.80

Under

1xBet

1.21

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.7

Avg scored

0.1

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.63	1.33	0.75	1.50	0.50	1.14
vs Stronger (11)	0.64	1.45	1.00	2.00	0.33	1.00
vs Similar (16)	0.50	1.38	0.44	1.44	0.57	1.29
vs Weaker (3)	1.33	0.67	1.50	0.50	1.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	27% (+3pp vs league)

This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.1

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.43	0.67	1.46	0.62	1.41	0.71
vs Stronger (1)	0.00	2.00	-	-	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (20)	1.30	0.60	1.30	0.70	1.30	0.50
vs Weaker (9)	1.89	0.67	2.00	0.33	1.83	0.83
Clean sheet %	47% (+23pp vs league)

This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

84.0%

@ 1.05-4.2%

Under 0.5

16.0%

@ 7.80+4.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.05

Under

1xBet

7.80

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

56.7%

@ 1.34-11.3%

Under 1.5

43.3%

@ 2.85+11.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.37

Marathonbet

1.35

Superbet

1.31

Under

Superbet

2.95

1xBet

2.80

Marathonbet

2.79

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

29.9%

@ 2.11-13.9%

Under 2.5

70.1%

@ 1.64+13.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.15

1xBet

2.15

Superbet

2.02

Under

Superbet

1.71

Marathonbet

1.61

1xBet

1.61

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

42.7%

@ 1.95-4.9%

Under

57.3%

@ 1.77+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.13

Superbet

1.76

Under

Superbet

1.95

1xBet

1.59

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

12.4%

@ 6.50-1.8%

Under

87.6%

@ 1.08+1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.50

Under

1xBet

1.08

Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.0%

@ 11.00-6.5%

Under

98.0%

@ 1.01+6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

11.00

Under

1xBet

1.01

Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

70.7%

@ 1.11-11.6%

Under

29.3%

@ 5.15+11.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.11

Under

1xBet

5.15

Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

35.0%

@ 1.71-19.1%

Under

65.0%

@ 2.00+19.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.78

1xBet

1.63

Under

1xBet

2.09

Superbet

1.92

Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over

Over

11.3%

@ 2.82-20.9%

Under

88.7%

@ 1.34+20.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.82

Under

1xBet

1.34

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals	99.2%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+7.6%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	98.0%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	95.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	94.4%	1.21	1xBet 1.21	-	-	-	-	+18.6%	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	94.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals	94.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	93.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	92.3%	1.04	1xBet 1.05	Betfair 1.04	-	-	-	+1.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	92.1%	1.04	1xBet 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.1%	✗ Miss
Under 6.5	87.7%	1.14	1xBet 1.15	Superbet 1.12	-	-	-	+7.7%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	87.6%	1.08	1xBet 1.08	-	-	-	-	+1.8%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	85.5%	1.06	Superbet 1.10	1xBet 1.02	-	-	-	-1.3%	✓ Hit
Draw or Away	85.2%	1.03	Superbet 1.06	William Hil 1.04	Betfair 1.03	1xBet 1.03	Bet365 1.03	-4.2%	✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap	85.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	84.0%	1.05	1xBet 1.05	-	-	-	-	-4.2%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	83.7%	1.35	Superbet 1.39	Betfair 1.36	1xBet 1.34	William Hil 1.30	-	+15.8%	✗ Miss
Home or Away	82.8%	1.06	Superbet 1.10	William Hil 1.08	10Bet 1.08	Bet365 1.06	Betfair 1.06	-4.1%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals	78.9%	1.10	William Hil 1.12	1xBet 1.11	Betfair 1.11	Superbet 1.08	-	-4.3%	✓ Hit
Over 2.5	77.8%	1.16	1xBet 1.19	Bet365 1.17	Betfair 1.14	Superbet 1.14	-	-1.3%	✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals	77.0%	1.15	1xBet 1.16	Superbet 1.13	-	-	-	-2.3%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	76.7%	1.28	Betfair 1.33	Superbet 1.32	Unibet 1.26	Marathonbet 1.24	1xBet 1.24	+5.5%	✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals	73.0%	1.41	Pinnacle 1.49	1xBet 1.47	Superbet 1.26	-	-	+7.8%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	71.2%	1.68	1xBet 1.78	Pinnacle 1.64	Superbet 1.61	-	-	+16.2%	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals	70.7%	1.11	1xBet 1.11	-	-	-	-	-11.6%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	70.1%	1.64	Superbet 1.71	Marathonbet 1.61	1xBet 1.61	-	-	+13.9%	✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

TK (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

TK (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

TK (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

TK (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings

NKI wins

Draws

TW wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco · H/A from NKI

Date	H/A	Game	Score
23/10/25	A	Tartu Welco Vs NKI	5-2
19/07/25	H	NKI Vs Tartu Welco	0-3
19/06/25	A	Tartu Welco Vs NKI	0-1
01/05/25	H	NKI Vs Tartu Welco	0-4

Nõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
20/08/26	H	NKI Vs Tallinna Kalev	0-3
17/08/26	A	Nõmme United II Vs NKI	2-0
10/08/26	A	Flora II Vs NKI	3-0
01/08/26	H	NKI Vs Maardu	1-4
25/07/26	H	NKI Vs Flora II	0-5
18/07/26	H	NKI Vs FCI Levadia II	0-2
11/07/26	A	Viimsi Vs NKI	2-2
05/07/26	H	NKI Vs Elva	2-2
09/11/25	A	Viimsi Vs NKI	4-0
01/11/25	H	NKI Vs Tallinna Kalev II	4-1

Tartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
20/08/26	H	TW Vs FCI Levadia II	4-2
15/08/26	H	TW Vs Flora II	2-1
12/08/26	A	Kose Vs TW	0-8
08/08/26	A	Elva Vs TW	2-1
01/08/26	A	Nõmme United II Vs TW	2-1
23/07/26	A	Rumori Calcio II Vs TW	5-1
18/07/26	H	TW Vs FC Tallinn	0-2
13/07/26	A	Maardu Vs TW	1-8
10/03/26	A	Vaprus Vs TW	2-1
09/11/25	A	Flora II Vs TW	1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme Kalju II

Estonia: Esiliiga A

Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLLLL	1.07
Home	DLLLL	1.09
Away	LLDLL	1.05

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	30%	30%	29%
AVG goals	3.70	3.83	3.57
Over 1.5 %	89%	91%	86%
Over 2.5 %	77%	78%	76%
Over 3.5 %	50%	57%	43%
Scored	1.39	1.48	1.29
Conceded	2.32	2.35	2.29
BTTS	52%	52%	52%
Clean Sheet	16%	13%	19%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Tartu Welco

Estonia: Esiliiga A

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWWW	1.80
Home	WWLWW	1.92
Away	WLLLW	1.69

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	54%	58%	50%
AVG goals	4.18	4.33	4.04
Over 1.5 %	88%	88%	88%
Over 2.5 %	76%	75%	77%
Over 3.5 %	52%	54%	50%
Scored	2.72	2.92	2.54
Conceded	1.46	1.42	1.50
BTTS	66%	62%	69%
Clean Sheet	30%	29%	31%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Elva	9	18	56%	2.0	14	7	+7	2.3	56%	56%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	0.8	-
2	Maardu	9	18	67%	2.0	20	18	+2	4.2	78%	78%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	2.0	-
3	Viimsi	10	16	50%	1.6	23	14	+9	3.7	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.3	1.4	-
4	FCI Levadia II	9	16	56%	1.8	19	19	+0	4.2	100%	89%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.1	2.1	-
5	Flora II	11	14	36%	1.3	20	15	+5	3.2	82%	73%	45%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.4	-
6	Tallinna Kalev	8	13	50%	1.6	13	14	-1	3.4	88%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	1.8	-
7	Tartu Welco	8	12	50%	1.5	21	15	+6	4.5	100%	88%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.6	1.9	-
8	FC Tallinn	9	11	33%	1.2	8	11	-3	2.1	78%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
9	Nõmme United II	9	8	22%	0.9	9	16	-7	2.8	89%	56%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.8	-
10	Nõmme Kalju II	10	5	10%	0.5	9	27	-18	3.6	100%	70%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	2.7	-

Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches

Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II

Tartu Welco

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju II

Tartu Welco

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme Kalju II

Tartu Welco

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Nõmme Kalju II

Tartu Welco

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature