The model sees Viimsi as the clear favourite, rating an 68% chance of victory and a 14% chance for Nõmme Kalju II to win, with a 18% draw probability. The 3.7 expected total goals and a 3-goal total probability of 21% point to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Viimsi, a 9.2% probability. Nõmme Kalju II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 3.0, while Viimsi, on the road to a weaker side, scores 2.29 and concedes only 0.86. The model’s selections echo this imbalance: Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 7.5 (96.3%), Away +2 handicap (94.9%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.7%), Under 6.5 (91.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.5%), Over 1.5 (89.4%), and Draw or Away (86.4%). The recent form notes that Nõmme Kalju II is coming off a win while Viimsi is on a two-game winning run, reinforcing the model’s prediction of an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II win
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi win
68.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.20
1.50
2.44
1.50
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
3.00
1.33
3.00
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.82
1.33
2.22
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.20
2.57
1.07
2.12
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.12
1.06
2.14
1.29
2.11
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
1.36
3.00
0.86
2.14
1.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.1%
Under 2.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.2%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
8.0%
1-1
7.7%
0-3
7.1%
0-1
5.5%
1-4
5.2%
2-2
5.2%
Nõmme Kalju II goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
5.5%
8.1%
7.1%
4.6%
1
2.0%
7.7%
9.2%
8.0%
5.2%
2
1.5%
3.9%
5.2%
4.5%
2.9%
3
0.6%
1.5%
1.9%
1.7%
1.1%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme Kalju II goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.10 points worse than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.40 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 2.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme Kalju II is 1.30 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme Kalju II or Draw
31.5%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II or Viimsi
82.0%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Nõmme Kalju II + Viimsi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Viimsi
86.4%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Draw + Viimsi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5
Over
92.7%
Under
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 3.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme Kalju II, so a minus line means Nõmme Kalju II give that many goals of a start and Viimsi receive them. At -1, Nõmme Kalju II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme Kalju II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -2
1.5%
Draw -2
3.7%
Viimsi +2
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II -1
5.1%
Draw -1
8.4%
Viimsi +1
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +1
31.5%
Draw +1
20.4%
Viimsi -1
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme Kalju II)
Nõmme Kalju II +2
51.9%
Draw +2
19.7%
Viimsi -2
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.81
0.75
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
0.50
0.83
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.89
0.78
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.86
0.50
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.44
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.64
1.14
0.43
0.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.69
1.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.83
2.17
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.29
0.44
1.44
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.71
0.57
1.31
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.62
1.57
0.71
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.71
1.86
0.43
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II