Nõmme United II vs Elva Result & Analysis

The encounter between Nõmme United II and Elva is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 41%. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability. Nõmme United II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Elva, on the road, scores and concedes 1.86 each against comparable opposition. The home win, draw and away win probabilities are 33%, 26% and 41% respectively. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.6%) and Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%). Both sides are coming off mixed recent form, with Nõmme United II fresh from a 1-4 loss and Elva after a 0-0 draw.

The win for Elva extends their recent run, adding a second straight victory after a 1-0 triumph at home. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, as the final score read 0-1. The pre-match probability for the favoured result was 41%. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.3%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 94.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.4%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 92.2%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.