A tight encounter is shaping up as Nõmme United II host FC Tallinn, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 37% for a Nõmme victory, 27% for a draw and 36% for a Tallinn triumph. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% probability. Nõmme United II, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 2.0 goals scored and has not conceded in recent matches. FC Tallinn, on the road against a comparable opponent, also averages 2.0 goals scored but concedes 2.09. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (92.9%), Under 4.5 (83.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (82.8%) and Home +2 handicap (82.8%). All figures are presented as percentages, with no repetition of numbers.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United II win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn win
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.80
1.60
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.97
1.60
1.80
1.80
2.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.58
1.96
1.21
1.86
2.00
2.08
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
2.33
7.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.2%
1-0
7.0%
0-0
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
6.0%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.2%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.0%
13%
8.5%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.3%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
3
2.7%
3.9%
2.8%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme United II is 0.33 points worse than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme United II is 0.11 goals better than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme United II is 0.56 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United II or Draw
62.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Nõmme United II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II or FC Tallinn
72.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Nõmme United II + FC Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Tallinn
64.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + FC Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme United II, so a minus line means Nõmme United II give that many goals of a start and FC Tallinn receive them. At -1, Nõmme United II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.7%
FC Tallinn +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -1
17.0%
Draw -1
18.6%
FC Tallinn +1
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +1
62.9%
Draw +1
19.0%
FC Tallinn -1
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +2
81.9%
Draw +2
11.3%
FC Tallinn -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.40
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.04
0.29
1.07
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.20
0.73
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.92
0.93
0.79
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
5.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
Nõmme Kalju II