This match between Nõmme United II and FCI Levadia II in the Estonia Esiliiga A league is shaping up to be a high-scoring encounter, with the expected total goals standing at 3.2. The home side, Nõmme United II, has struggled to find the back of the net at home, averaging just 1 goal scored per match, while conceding 1.67 goals on average. In contrast, FCI Levadia II has been prolific on the road, scoring 2.6 goals per match against weaker opponents.
FCI Levadia II's recent form has been impressive, unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 2-2 draw against Elva. They are the model's selection for the away win, with a probability of 44%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a probability of 83.7%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%. The home side, Nõmme United II, has a 31% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 44% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Nømme United II's run of losses to two, as FCI Levadia II took all three points with a 1-2 scoreline, securing the away win. The model's selection of an away win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the model's call was vindicated. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 83.7% probability, as the final score was indeed 1-2.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United II win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.71
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
3.90
1xBet
3.77
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.39
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.63
Edge
-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.70
Dafabet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
BetVictor
1.65
1xBet
1.64
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.67
1.00
3.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.67
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.93
2.25
2.00
1.86
1.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.65
2.08
1.77
2.31
1.54
1.85
vs Weaker (4)
4.75
1.00
4.33
0.67
6.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
@ 1.03-5.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
@ 8.70+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Under
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
7.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.6%
@ 1.19-15.3%
Under 2.5
38.4%
@ 3.96+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.4%
@ 1.51-21.0%
Under 3.5
60.6%
@ 2.31+21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.32
BetVictor
2.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.9%
@ 1.23-11.1%
No
36.1%
@ 3.70+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
No
BetVictor
4.00
1xBet
3.70
Superbet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 10.67+7.4%
1-2 ✓
9.1%@ 9.20+4.5%
2-1
7.4%@ 13.20+4.2%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.08+2.3%
0-2
6.4%@ 14.20+3.4%
0-1
6.2%@ 17.00+3.7%
1-3
5.3%@ 10.42+1.2%
0-0
5.2%@ 37.50+4.1%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.2%
6.4%
3.7%
1.6%
1
4.9%
11%
9.1%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.2%
7.4%
6.5%
3.8%
1.7%
3
2.0%
3.5%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme United II is 0.89 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme United II is 1.11 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme United II is 0.33 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.12
0.81
1.36
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.88
0.92
1.00
1.15
0.77
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
1.12
1.19
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
1.19
0.85
1.31
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
2.33
0.67
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-5.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme Kalju II