PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Nõmme United II vs FCI Levadia II Prediction & Stats

Date: 09/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Nõmme United II
Nõmme United II
Vs
40%
26%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme United II’s home form shows a modest 0.8 goals per game but a high 1.6 conceded, while FCI Levadia II, playing away, averages 3.0 scored and 1.33 conceded against weaker opponents, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair. The model projects an average of 3.2 goals, with the most likely total being three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% chance. The predicted result favours a home win, with probabilities of 40% for a Nõmme victory, 26% for a draw and 34% for a Levadia win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Under 6.5 (95.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Under 5.5 (89.7%), Over 1.5 (83.6%), Home +2 handicap (83.0%) and Home over 0.5 goals (80.9%). Nõmme’s recent five games (LLDWL) followed two straight defeats, while Levadia’s last five (LWLLW) came after a loss, adding context to the projected outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United II win
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme United IINõmme United II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D13L03L21W12L20W11D14L01LH·FLO12/07A·TAL18/07H·VII27/07H·TAR01/08H·FCI08/08H·NÕM17/08A·FC 20/08A·VII24/08H·ELV30/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.781.001.331.002.67
vs Stronger (6)0.832.000.801.601.004.00
vs Similar (3)1.331.332.000.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D40W32W20W22D21W05L24L21W24LA·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07A·NÕM18/07H·ELV01/08A·NÕM08/08A·VII15/08A·TAR20/08H·FC 23/08A·MAA29/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.102.002.331.801.872.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.682.201.832.081.542.31
vs Weaker (5)4.201.004.330.674.001.50
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.8%
2-0
5.7%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
05.2%5.3%4.8%2.5%0.9%
15.8%12%8.0%4.1%1.6%
25.7%8.7%6.6%3.4%1.3%
33.1%4.8%3.7%1.9%0.7%
41.3%2.0%1.5%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme United II is 0.89 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.78).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme United II is 1.11 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme United II is 0.33 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 2.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United II or Draw
65.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
34%
covers Nõmme United II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II or FCI Levadia II
74.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
34%
covers Nõmme United II + FCI Levadia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FCI Levadia II
60.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
34%
covers Draw + FCI Levadia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme United II, so a minus line means Nõmme United II give that many goals of a start and FCI Levadia II receive them. At -1, Nõmme United II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -2
8.7%
Draw -2
12.3%
FCI Levadia II +2
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -1
20.9%
Draw -1
19.0%
FCI Levadia II +1
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +1
65.6%
Draw +1
17.5%
FCI Levadia II -1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +2
83.0%
Draw +2
10.4%
FCI Levadia II -2
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme United IINõmme United II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D01L01L00D11D00D01LH·FLO12/07A·TAL18/07H·VII27/07H·TAR01/08H·FCI08/08H·NÕM17/08A·FC 20/08A·VII24/08H·ELV30/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.110.780.000.670.331.00
vs Stronger (6)0.000.670.000.800.000.00
vs Similar (3)0.331.000.000.000.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W20W10W00D10W02L12L11D22DA·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07A·NÕM18/07H·ELV01/08A·NÕM08/08A·VII15/08A·TAR20/08H·FC 23/08A·MAA29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.901.200.801.271.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.041.001.001.001.081.00
vs Weaker (5)2.200.402.000.002.501.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme United IINõmme United II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D03L20W11D20W00D14L00DH·FLO12/07A·TAL18/07H·VII27/07H·TAR01/08H·FCI08/08H·NÕM17/08A·FC 20/08A·VII24/08H·ELV30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.891.001.000.670.671.67
vs Stronger (6)0.831.330.800.801.004.00
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W12L10W22D11D03L12L10W02LA·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07A·NÕM18/07H·ELV01/08A·NÕM08/08A·VII15/08A·TAR20/08H·FC 23/08A·MAA29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.101.131.000.601.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.641.200.831.080.461.31
vs Weaker (5)2.000.602.330.671.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.4%-------
Under 6.595.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.4%-------
Under 5.589.7%-------
Over 1.583.6%-------
Home +2 handicap83.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.3%-------
Away +2 handicap79.1%-------
Under 4.578.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals76.9%-------
Home or Away74.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
NUI wins
0
Draws
1
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from NUI
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HNUI Vs FCI Levadia II1-2

Nõmme United IINõmme United II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HNUI Vs Elva0-1
24/08/26AViimsi Vs NUI4-1
20/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs NUI1-1
17/08/26HNUI Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-0
08/08/26HNUI Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
01/08/26HNUI Vs Tartu Welco2-1
27/07/26HNUI Vs Viimsi0-3
18/07/26ATallinna Kalev Vs NUI3-1
12/07/26HNUI Vs Flora II1-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AMaardu Vs FLI4-2
23/08/26HFLI Vs FC Tallinn2-1
20/08/26ATartu Welco Vs FLI4-2
15/08/26AViimsi Vs FLI5-0
08/08/26ANõmme United II Vs FLI1-2
01/08/26HFLI Vs Elva2-2
18/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI0-2
11/07/26HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev3-2
05/07/26AFlora II Vs FLI0-4
09/11/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United II
Nõmme United II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL0.89
HomeLWLWL1.17
AwayLDL0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%33%0%
AVG goals2.782.333.67
Over 1.5 %89%83%100%
Over 2.5 %56%50%67%
Over 3.5 %22%0%67%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.781.332.67
BTTS67%50%100%
Clean Sheet11%17%0%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.24
HomeWWWDW1.29
AwayWWLLL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.744.043.46
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %68%75%62%
Over 3.5 %48%50%46%
Scored1.762.081.46
Conceded1.981.962.00
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches