The model favours an away win, with a 48% chance for Maardu, 27% for Nõmme United II and 25% for a draw. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% chance, a tidy draw that reflects the balanced attacking output of both sides.
Nõmme United II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Maardu, on the road against a weaker side, averages 3.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, giving them a clear offensive edge.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (90.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.5%), Away +2 handicap (88.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.9%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.1%). These selections highlight the high likelihood of a low-scoring, home-side-defensive match with Maardu’s attacking potency.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United II win
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maardu win
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.80
1.60
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maardu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.22
2.00
2.00
2.80
2.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
2.67
2.25
3.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.7%
1-3
5.6%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
Maardu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.2%
7.3%
4.3%
1.9%
1
4.9%
12%
9.5%
5.6%
2.5%
2
3.9%
6.9%
6.1%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.7%
3.0%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = Maardu goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme United II is 1.11 points worse than Maardu in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme United II is 1.22 goals worse than Maardu in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme United II is 0.22 goals better than Maardu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United II or Draw
52.2%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Nõmme United II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II or Maardu
74.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Nõmme United II + Maardu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maardu
73.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Draw + Maardu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
72.5%
Under
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme United II, so a minus line means Nõmme United II give that many goals of a start and Maardu receive them. At -1, Nõmme United II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -2
4.0%
Draw -2
7.8%
Maardu +2
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -1
11.8%
Draw -1
15.0%
Maardu +1
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +1
52.2%
Draw +1
21.1%
Maardu -1
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +2
73.3%
Draw +2
14.8%
Maardu -2
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maardu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.00
1.40
1.60
0.75
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maardu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.00
0.60
1.20
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme Kalju II