Nømme United II host Nømme Kalju II in Estonia's Esiliiga A, with the home side's recent form weighing heavily on their minds after coming off a defeat. They've struggled to find consistency, having won just once in their last five matches, with a last score of 1-2 against FCI Levadia II.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% chance. Nømme United II have struggled to score at home, averaging 1 goal per match, while conceding 1.75. Nømme Kalju II, in contrast, have excelled away from home, scoring 5 goals on average against weaker opponents, while conceding just 1.
The model favours a home win, with a 43% probability. The draw percentage stands at 25%, while the away win probability is 32%. The model's selection is the home win. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.6% chance of success.
Results analysis
The win extends Nõmme United II’s recent form, ending a draw and securing a home victory. The final score was 2-0, matching the model’s predicted outcome of a home win. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 43 %. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 89.8 %, Over 1.5 hit at 84.6 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 84.6 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 82.8 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 81.0 %, Away over 0.5 goals missed at 77.6 %, and Home or Away hit at 75.0 %. The model’s selections performed strongly, confirming the predicted result and most of the ancillary outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United II win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied 61.0% · @ 1.48
Edge
-18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.57
Dafabet
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.90
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.29
Pinnacle
5.17
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Dafabet
4.90
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.36
Edge
+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.05
Betfair
4.75
BetVictor
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.75
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.23
1.75
2.19
1.43
2.29
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.64
1.20
2.80
1.17
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.44
2.25
1.67
2.22
1.14
2.29
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
0.67
3.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
@ 1.03-7.2%
Under 1.5
15.4%
@ 11.50+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Under
Betfair
13.00
1xBet
10.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.14-17.5%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 4.74+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
3.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
@ 1.39-24.5%
Under 3.5
59.0%
@ 2.64+24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.3%
@ 1.20-11.7%
No
34.7%
@ 4.01+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
No
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
William Hil
3.90
1xBet
3.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 13.17+7.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.60+4.5%
1-2
7.6%@ 16.20+5.0%
2-2
6.7%@ 11.08+2.8%
2-0 ✓
6.0%@ 15.20+3.2%
1-0
5.8%@ 20.00+3.6%
3-1
5.2%@ 10.08+1.0%
0-0
4.9%@ 46.00+3.9%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.8%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
1
5.8%
11%
7.6%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.9%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.5%
5.2%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme United II is 0.39 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme United II is 0.10 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme United II is 0.92 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United II or Draw✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.14
Edge
-12.0%
43%
25%
32%
covers Nõmme United II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Nõmme United II or Nõmme Kalju II✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 81.7% · @ 1.12
Edge
-6.7%
43%
25%
32%
covers Nõmme United II + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.17
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II✗ Miss
57.0%
Avg Implied 38.2% · @ 2.39
Edge
+18.7%
43%
25%
32%
covers Draw + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.75
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
@ 1.07-3.8%
Under
17.2%
@ 6.90+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.07
Under
1xBet
6.90
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.5%
@ 1.43-11.0%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.49+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.49
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.8%
@ 1.81-25.3%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.90+25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.33
Unibet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.11
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.50
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 3.43-17.1%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.29+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
2.61
Under
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.17
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.6%
@ 1.12-4.4%
Under
22.4%
@ 5.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.10
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 1.74-8.6%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.93+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.77
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 2.78-13.7%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.35+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.78
Under
1xBet
1.35
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme United II, so a minus line means Nõmme United II give that many goals of a start and Nõmme Kalju II receive them. At -1, Nõmme United II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United II)Actual: Draw
Nõmme United II -2
10.2%
@ 3.22-16.0%
Draw -2
13.3%
@ 4.40-5.9%
Nõmme Kalju II +2
76.6%
@ 1.54+21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.10
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.60
Unibet
1.49
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United II)Actual: Nõmme United II
Nõmme United II -1
23.4%
@ 2.04-18.8%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 4.08-1.6%
Nõmme Kalju II +1
57.0%
@ 2.36+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
3.45
Away
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.38
Unibet
2.12
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United II)Actual: Nõmme United II
Nõmme United II +1
68.1%
@ 1.24+3.4%
Draw +1
16.5%
@ 4.40-1.7%
Nõmme Kalju II -1
15.4%
@ 4.70-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.24
Draw
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United II)Actual: Nõmme United II
Nõmme United II +2
84.6%
Draw +2
9.6%
Nõmme Kalju II -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.75
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.88
0.75
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.18
0.20
0.80
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
1.00
0.89
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.43
0.88
1.44
0.50
1.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.45
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
1.56
0.67
1.33
0.57
1.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.8%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+17.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.6%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.8%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
1.35
1xBet
1.35
-
-
-
-
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.0%
1.12
William Hil
1.17
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-6.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →