This match between Nõmme United II and Tartu Welco in the Estonia: Esiliiga A league on August 1, 2026, is shaping up to be a high-scoring encounter. The expected total goals stands at 3.8, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a probability of 9%.
Tartu Welco's recent form has been underwhelming, with three consecutive defeats, but they've shown resilience in scoring 2.5 goals on average while conceding 0.67 away from home. Meanwhile, Nõmme United II has struggled at home, scoring 0.5 goals on average while conceding 2.0 against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with a probability of 61%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 and Over 2.5, with probabilities of 90.1% and 73.3%, respectively. The home win percentage stands at 19%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 61%.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came when Nømme United II pulled off a 2-1 home win over Tartu Welco, defying the odds. The win extends their run of three consecutive draws and a defeat. The pre-match favourite was actually an away win, selected by the Pythia prediction model with a 61% probability, but it was the model's call that was wrong. The model's selection was correct for Over 1.5 goals, with a 90.1% probability, and also Over 2.5 goals, with a 73.3% probability, both of which hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United II win✓ Hit
19.2%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 5.82
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.47
Marathonbet
6.25
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.23
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Pinnacle
5.43
Tartu Welco win✗ Miss
60.8%
Avg Implied 67.3% · @ 1.34
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.43
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Dafabet
1.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
2.33
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.60
1.86
1.86
2.62
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.19
2.12
1.88
2.12
2.50
2.12
vs Weaker (14)
2.36
1.00
1.83
1.50
2.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.1%
@ 1.04-1.3%
Under 1.5
9.9%
@ 11.00+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Under
Betfair
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.3%
@ 1.17-4.7%
Under 2.5
26.7%
@ 4.16+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.9%
@ 1.47-9.1%
Under 3.5
47.1%
@ 2.40+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.6%
@ 1.32-1.2%
No
31.4%
@ 3.05+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
No
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.10
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.0%@ 9.00+4.3%
1-1
8.1%@ 12.67+4.7%
1-3
7.4%@ 9.25+2.7%
0-2
6.7%@ 12.00+3.1%
2-2
6.1%@ 12.33+2.7%
0-3
5.5%@ 11.83+1.8%
2-3
5.0%@ 12.33+1.5%
2-1 ✓
5.0%@ 19.40+2.8%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
4.7%
6.7%
5.5%
3.3%
1
2.3%
8.1%
9.0%
7.4%
4.5%
2
2.0%
5.0%
6.1%
5.0%
3.1%
3
0.9%
2.3%
2.8%
2.3%
1.4%
4
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tallinna Kalev
2.17
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.86
Maardu
1.71
Viimsi
1.67
Tartu Welco
1.50
FC Tallinn
1.33
Nõmme United II
1.14
Flora II
0.88
Nõmme Kalju II
0.25
Nõmme United II is 0.36 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.67
Viimsi
2.33
FCI Levadia II
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Maardu
1.86
Elva
1.86
Flora II
1.62
Nõmme United II
1.14
FC Tallinn
0.83
Nõmme Kalju II
0.62
Nõmme United II is 1.52 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
1.00
FC Tallinn
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Viimsi
1.33
Nõmme United II
1.57
Tartu Welco
1.67
Flora II
1.75
FCI Levadia II
2.00
Maardu
2.14
Nõmme Kalju II
2.88
Nõmme United II is 0.10 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.03
0.79
1.29
1.12
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.31
0.75
1.38
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.71
0.83
1.17
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.1%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-4.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Tallinna Kalev
FCI Levadia II
Maardu
Viimsi
FC Tallinn
Flora II
Nõmme Kalju II