The model favours an away win, with a 50 % chance of Viimsi taking the points. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1 % chance. Nõmme United II, playing at home against a stronger side, averages one goal scored and 1.67 conceded. Viimsi, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded. Home win probability is 24 %, draw 26 %, away win 50 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.0 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 5.5 (92.5 %), Away +2 handicap (90.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (89.0 %), and Under 4.5 (83.0 %). The recent form notes that Nõmme United II are coming off a draw, while Viimsi return after a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nõmme United II win
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi win
53.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.80
1.60
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.20
2.57
1.07
2.12
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.12
1.06
2.14
1.29
2.11
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
1.36
3.00
0.86
2.14
1.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
9.6%
0-2
9.5%
0-0
7.2%
1-3
5.8%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
5.6%
Nõmme United II goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
9.6%
9.5%
5.6%
2.5%
1
5.2%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.5%
2
3.3%
5.8%
5.1%
3.0%
1.3%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United II goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Nõmme United II is 0.71 points worse than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Nõmme United II is 1.30 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Nõmme United II is 0.38 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United II or Draw
46.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
26%
53%
covers Nõmme United II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II or Viimsi
74.3%
Avg Implied -
21%
26%
53%
covers Nõmme United II + Viimsi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Viimsi
79.0%
Avg Implied -
21%
26%
53%
covers Draw + Viimsi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nõmme United II, so a minus line means Nõmme United II give that many goals of a start and Viimsi receive them. At -1, Nõmme United II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -2
2.3%
Draw -2
5.8%
Viimsi +2
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II -1
8.0%
Draw -1
13.0%
Viimsi +1
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +1
46.7%
Draw +1
22.9%
Viimsi -1
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United II)
Nõmme United II +2
69.6%
Draw +2
16.7%
Viimsi -2
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.86
0.50
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.44
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.64
1.14
0.43
0.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.3%
Under 0.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.2%
Under 1.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
Under 2.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.71
0.57
1.31
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.62
1.57
0.71
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.71
1.86
0.43
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.7%
Under 0.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.4%
Under 1.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.3%
Under 2.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
FCI Levadia II
Flora II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme Kalju II