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Nõmme United vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 29/08/2026
Time: 11:30
Final 1-2
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
52%
23%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Nõmme United enter the match after a four-game losing streak, their last outing ending 1-4 against Paide. Laagri, on the other hand, have just won 1-0 over Kalju Nomme and are looking to reverse a recent slump. The model sees a 52% chance of a home win, a 23% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of an away victory, favouring the home side as the most likely result. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a fairly open game, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at a 10.4% probability. Nõmme United average 3.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Laagri average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded away. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 7.5 (97.8% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with an 8% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3% with a 9% edge), Under 6.5 (94.5% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.0% with a 3% edge) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (90.6% with an 11% edge).

Results analysis

After a bleak run of five straight defeats, Nõmme United fell to a 1-2 loss at home, with Laagri clinching the win on the road. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 52% probability, but the model’s call proved wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3%, Under 6.5 at 94.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.6%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.0%. All eight picks were settled, with each probability expressed as a percentage. The match confirmed the model’s strong performance on low-scoring predictions, despite the upset.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win✗ Miss
52.1%
Avg Implied 39.3% · @ 2.31
Edge
+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Dafabet
2.31
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.64
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Bet365
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
Laagri win✓ Hit
24.5%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.53
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Betano
2.57
Unibet
2.55

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1213L13L32W21W120W12L05L01L20W14LA·FLO10/03H·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.201.233.930.932.471.53
vs Stronger (5)1.002.001.000.001.002.50
vs Similar (21)3.101.193.181.183.001.20
vs Weaker (4)6.500.507.670.333.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-822D12L30W52W80W01L23L31W12L10WH·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07H·RAE23/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08H·TAM11/08H·FC 16/08H·KAL22/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.731.533.671.221.332.00
vs Stronger (13)1.541.852.111.670.252.25
vs Similar (16)2.251.382.620.881.881.88
vs Weaker (1)26.000.0026.000.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
@ 1.08+1.3%
Under 1.5
14.3%
@ 5.89-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.1%
@ 1.36-2.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
@ 2.80+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.82
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.2%
@ 1.94-4.5%
Under 3.5
56.8%
@ 1.77+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Under
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.80
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.9%
@ 1.35-3.3%
No
35.1%
@ 2.90+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
No
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.84

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 7.35+4.7%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.61+4.6%
2-0
7.1%@ 14.34+4.1%
2-2
6.4%@ 9.06+1.7%
3-1
6.4%@ 13.70+3.3%
1-2 ✓
6.3%@ 9.18+1.8%
1-0
6.1%@ 12.68+2.8%
3-0
4.7%@ 22.57+2.9%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
04.4%3.7%3.1%1.4%0.5%
16.1%10%6.3%2.8%1.0%
27.1%9.5%6.4%2.8%1.0%
34.7%6.4%4.3%1.9%0.6%
42.4%3.2%2.1%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Nõmme United is 0.75 points worse than Laagri in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United is 0.75 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.88).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Nõmme United is 1.12 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nõmme United or Draw✗ Miss
75.5%
Avg Implied 64.4% · @ 1.43
Edge
+11.1%
52%
23%
24%
covers Nõmme United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Nõmme United or Laagri✓ Hit
76.5%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.22
Edge
+1.6%
52%
23%
24%
covers Nõmme United + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or Laagri✓ Hit
47.9%
Avg Implied 60.7% · @ 1.51
Edge
-12.7%
52%
23%
24%
covers Draw + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.6%
@ 1.14+6.5%
Under
13.4%
@ 4.60-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.11
Under
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Nõmme United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.7%
@ 1.74+6.7%
Under
40.3%
@ 1.97-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Under
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Nõmme United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.7%
@ 3.23+4.2%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.28-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Nõmme United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 6.65+0.6%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.30
Under
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Laagri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
@ 1.15-5.5%
Under
26.1%
@ 4.41+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Under
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Laagri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.8%
@ 1.80-12.2%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.87+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Laagri over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 3.47-11.1%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.24+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.55
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Laagri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 7.10-8.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.06+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.50
1xBet
6.70
Under
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nõmme United, so a minus line means Nõmme United give that many goals of a start and Laagri receive them. At -1, Nõmme United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nõmme United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nõmme United)Actual: Laagri
Nõmme United -2
15.1%
@ 7.77+3.7%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 6.42+2.2%
Laagri +2
68.9%
@ 1.19-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.65
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
Handicap -1 (Nõmme United)Actual: Laagri
Nõmme United -1
31.1%
@ 4.05+9.3%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 4.41+1.0%
Laagri +1
47.9%
@ 1.51-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.25
Away
Unibet
1.56
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
Handicap +1 (Nõmme United)Actual: Draw
Nõmme United +1
75.5%
@ 1.46+15.1%
Draw +1
13.7%
@ 4.54-5.7%
Laagri -1
10.8%
@ 4.34-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Handicap +2 (Nõmme United)Actual: Nõmme United
Nõmme United +2
89.2%
@ 1.15+12.4%
Draw +2
7.1%
@ 6.87-5.8%
Laagri -2
3.7%
@ 8.57-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Unibet
6.75
Away
Unibet
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W13L01L20W60W02L03L00D00D11DA·FLO10/03H·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.572.000.671.330.47
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.000.000.751.00
vs Similar (21)1.570.571.550.821.600.30
vs Weaker (4)3.500.254.330.331.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L12L20W51W20W00D01L21W11D00DH·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07H·RAE23/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08H·TAM11/08H·FC 16/08H·KAL22/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.801.830.500.671.25
vs Stronger (13)0.850.921.220.780.001.25
vs Similar (16)1.120.751.250.251.001.25
vs Weaker (1)12.000.0012.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.20-3.9%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 3.94+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 1.99-9.5%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.73+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.74
SBO
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 4.05-7.9%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.18+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.3%
@ 1.68-12.6%
Under
57.7%
@ 2.04+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Under
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
1.95
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 4.45-10.6%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.16+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.30
Under
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.9%
@ 1.73+2.6%
Under
44.1%
@ 1.98-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 4.70-2.9%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.14+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Under
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L00D31W01L60W10W02L01L20W03LA·FLO10/03H·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08A·PAI23/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.671.930.271.131.07
vs Stronger (5)0.401.201.000.000.251.50
vs Similar (21)1.520.621.640.361.400.90
vs Weaker (4)3.000.253.330.002.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W00D10W01L60W01L22D10W01L10WH·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07H·RAE23/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08H·TAM11/08H·FC 16/08H·KAL22/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.731.830.720.670.75
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.890.890.251.00
vs Similar (16)1.120.621.380.620.880.62
vs Weaker (1)14.000.0014.000.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.1%
@ 1.11-3.4%
Under 0.5
19.9%
@ 5.60+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
William Hil
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.7%
@ 1.58-8.5%
Under 1.5
50.3%
@ 2.20+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.9%
@ 2.81-7.8%
Under 2.5
75.1%
@ 1.37+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Under
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.6%
@ 1.47-18.2%
Under
55.4%
@ 2.48+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 3.20-9.8%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.28+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 8.60-7.7%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Under
1xBet
1.03
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.9%
@ 1.52+1.4%
Under
38.1%
@ 2.33-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Under
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.9%
@ 3.42-3.0%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.25+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 9.70-3.0%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Under
1xBet
1.01

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Home under 2.5 HT goals98.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 7.597.8%1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
---+5.3%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.0%1.03
1xBet
1.03
----+7.7%✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals95.3%1.06
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
---+8.3%✓ Hit
Under 6.594.5%1.04
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
---+5.2%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals94.5%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals93.6%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+3.0%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals90.0%1.16
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
---+10.6%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap89.2%1.15
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
--+12.4%✓ Hit
Under 5.587.6%1.11
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+4.9%✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals86.6%1.14
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.11
--+6.5%✓ Hit
Over 1.585.7%1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+1.3%✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals85.5%1.07
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
----0.6%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals85.3%1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+7.9%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals84.7%1.24
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
+11.1%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals83.4%1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
---+2.9%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals81.2%1.28
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
---+9.8%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals80.1%1.11
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
--3.4%✓ Hit
Home or Away76.5%1.22
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
+1.6%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals76.1%1.25
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
---+3.0%✓ Hit
Home or Draw75.5%1.43
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
+11.1%✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap75.5%1.46
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
-+15.1%✗ Miss
Under 4.575.3%1.31
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+5.0%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals75.1%1.37
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+7.8%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals73.9%1.15
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
--5.5%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals72.8%1.20
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
-3.9%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Nõmme United and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
NU wins
0
Draws
3
LAA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Laagri · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/25ALaagri Vs NU0-1
14/08/24ALaagri Vs NU3-0
22/10/22ALaagri Vs NU5-1
04/09/22HNU Vs Laagri4-1
28/04/22ALaagri Vs NU4-2
10/04/22HNU Vs Laagri3-2

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/26APaide Vs NU4-1
19/08/26AHiiumaa Vs NU0-2
14/08/26HNU Vs Tammeka0-1
09/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs NU5-0
31/07/26HNU Vs Trans Narva1-2
23/07/26HNU Vs Raplamaa12-0
17/07/26AFlora Tallinn Vs NU1-2
11/07/26HNU Vs Kuressaare3-2
03/07/26HNU Vs Kalju Nomme1-3
10/03/26AFlora Tallinn Vs NU3-1

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-0
16/08/26HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-2
11/08/26HLAA Vs Tamper3-1
07/08/26AKuressaare Vs LAA3-2
02/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs LAA1-0
23/07/26HLAA Vs Rae Spordikool8-0
19/07/26HLAA Vs Paide5-2
10/07/26HLAA Vs Trans Narva3-0
05/07/26ATammeka Vs LAA2-1
08/11/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL2.26
HomeLWWLL2.28
AwayLWLWL2.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%76%72%
AVG goals4.224.523.92
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %76%80%72%
Over 3.5 %60%64%56%
Scored3.183.602.76
Conceded1.040.921.16
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.26
HomeWWWLW1.56
AwayLWLLL0.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%26%
AVG goals3.784.043.48
Over 1.5 %84%78%91%
Over 2.5 %76%70%83%
Over 3.5 %44%37%52%
Scored2.122.781.35
Conceded1.661.262.13
BTTS58%52%65%
Clean Sheet18%30%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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