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Nõmme United vs Tallinna Kalev II Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 8-0
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Vs
80%
12%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nõmme United win✓ Hit
80.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II win✗ Miss
8.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D31W21W60W41W52W40W10W60W41WA·VII11/08A·LUU16/08H·NÕM23/08H·FC 31/08A·ELV13/09H·TAR18/09A·NÕM22/09H·VII27/09H·LUU19/10A·FC 23/10
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.370.703.380.753.360.64
vs Stronger (4)1.000.501.500.000.501.00
vs Similar (22)3.180.733.250.833.100.60
vs Weaker (4)6.750.756.001.007.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D20W21W22D05L54W03L22D13L14LH·NÕM16/08A·ELV24/08A·TAR31/08H·FC 12/09H·VII19/09A·LUU22/09H·ELV27/09A·FC 05/10H·TAR19/10H·FLO23/10
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.601.402.531.732.67
vs Stronger (13)1.082.770.833.331.292.29
vs Similar (13)1.232.460.712.431.832.50
vs Weaker (4)4.252.505.500.503.004.50
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%16%23%31%1%04%111%216%319%417%531%6+
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.8%
Under 1.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
83.9%
Under 2.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.7%
Under 3.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
6.9%
2-1
6.9%
4-0
6.0%
2-0
6.0%
5-1
4.8%
3-2
4.6%
Nõmme United goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev II goals →
01234
01.4%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%
13.1%4.4%2.3%0.9%0.3%
26.0%6.9%4.0%1.5%0.4%
36.9%8.0%4.6%1.8%0.5%
46.0%6.9%4.0%1.5%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nõmme United goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Nõmme United is 1.81 points better than Tallinna Kalev II in terms of average points per game (2.56 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Nõmme United is 2.00 goals better than Tallinna Kalev II in terms of goals scored per game (3.47 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Nõmme United is 1.92 goals better than Tallinna Kalev II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 2.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W10W30W20W41W20W00D40W20WA·VII11/08A·LUU16/08H·NÕM23/08H·FC 31/08A·ELV13/09H·TAR18/09A·NÕM22/09H·VII27/09H·LUU19/10A·FC 23/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.272.000.381.500.14
vs Stronger (4)0.000.250.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (22)1.680.271.920.421.400.10
vs Weaker (4)4.000.254.500.503.500.00
Clean sheet %77% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W10W11D02L12L01L10W00D04LH·NÕM16/08A·ELV24/08A·TAR31/08H·FC 12/09H·VII19/09A·LUU22/09H·ELV27/09A·FC 05/10H·TAR19/10H·FLO23/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.200.531.330.801.07
vs Stronger (13)0.461.540.172.000.711.14
vs Similar (13)0.540.920.291.000.830.83
vs Weaker (4)1.751.002.500.501.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W11D30W21W11D20W10W20W21WA·VII11/08A·LUU16/08H·NÕM23/08H·FC 31/08A·ELV13/09H·TAR18/09A·NÕM22/09H·VII27/09H·LUU19/10A·FC 23/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.431.380.381.860.50
vs Stronger (4)1.000.251.500.000.500.50
vs Similar (22)1.500.451.330.421.700.50
vs Weaker (4)2.750.501.500.504.000.50
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W11D11D03L42W02L12L13L10WH·NÕM16/08A·ELV24/08A·TAR31/08H·FC 12/09H·VII19/09A·LUU22/09H·ELV27/09A·FC 05/10H·TAR19/10H·FLO23/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.400.871.200.931.60
vs Stronger (13)0.621.230.671.330.571.14
vs Similar (13)0.691.540.431.431.001.67
vs Weaker (4)2.501.503.000.002.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.594.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.583.9%-------✓ Hit
Home win80.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
NU wins
0
Draws
0
TKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nõmme United vs Tallinna Kalev II · H/A from NU
DateH/AGameScore
12/07/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs NU0-3
15/06/25HNU Vs Tallinna Kalev II4-0
27/04/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs NU1-3

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/10/25AFC Tallinn Vs NU1-4
19/10/25HNU Vs Luunja6-0
27/09/25HNU Vs Viimsi1-0
22/09/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs NU0-4
18/09/25HNU Vs Tartu Welco5-2
13/09/25AElva Vs NU1-4
31/08/25HNU Vs FC Tallinn6-0
23/08/25HNU Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-1
16/08/25ALuunja Vs NU1-3
11/08/25AViimsi Vs NU1-1

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/10/25HTKI Vs Flora II1-4
19/10/25HTKI Vs Tartu Welco1-3
05/10/25AFC Tallinn Vs TKI2-2
27/09/25HTKI Vs Elva0-3
22/09/25ALuunja Vs TKI4-5
19/09/25HTKI Vs Viimsi0-5
12/09/25HTKI Vs FC Tallinn2-2
31/08/25ATartu Welco Vs TKI1-2
24/08/25AElva Vs TKI0-2
16/08/25HTKI Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.74
HomeWWWWW1.76
AwayDWWWW1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.683.763.60
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %66%72%60%
Over 3.5 %50%60%40%
Scored2.302.322.28
Conceded1.381.441.32
BTTS48%36%60%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.08
HomeDLLLL1.04
AwayDWWWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals4.244.044.44
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %82%88%76%
Over 3.5 %64%64%64%
Scored1.821.761.88
Conceded2.422.282.56
BTTS68%64%72%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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