This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.63
0.93
1.53
0.73
1.73
vs Stronger (20)
1.00
1.65
1.30
1.80
0.70
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.60
0.20
1.00
0.80
2.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.8%
Under 1.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.07-4.4%
Under 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.74+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.6%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
11.2%
0-0
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
4.8%
Northampton goals ↓
Shrewsbury goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.7%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.1%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.7%
4.6%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Northampton goals (down), columns = Shrewsbury goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Birmingham
2.41
Wrexham
2.00
Stockport
1.89
Charlton
1.85
Wycombe
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.70
Reading
1.63
Bolton
1.48
Blackpool
1.46
Huddersfield
1.39
Lincoln
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Rotherham
1.28
Stevenage
1.24
Wigan
1.22
Exeter
1.22
Mansfield
1.17
Northampton
1.11
Peterboro
1.11
Burton
1.02
Crawley Town
1.00
Bristol Rvs
0.93
Cambridge
0.83
Shrewsbury
0.72
Northampton is 0.39 points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birmingham
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.57
Blackpool
1.57
Stockport
1.57
Wycombe
1.52
Barnsley
1.50
Reading
1.48
Peterboro
1.48
Bolton
1.46
Charlton
1.46
Wrexham
1.46
Lincoln
1.39
Mansfield
1.30
Huddersfield
1.26
Crawley Town
1.24
Rotherham
1.17
Exeter
1.07
Burton
1.07
Northampton
1.04
Cambridge
0.98
Bristol Rvs
0.96
Stevenage
0.91
Shrewsbury
0.89
Wigan
0.87
Northampton is 0.15 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Birmingham
0.67
Wrexham
0.74
Wigan
0.91
Stockport
0.91
Charlton
0.93
Wycombe
0.98
Leyton Orient
1.04
Stevenage
1.09
Huddersfield
1.20
Lincoln
1.22
Reading
1.24
Rotherham
1.28
Blackpool
1.30
Exeter
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Burton
1.43
Bolton
1.52
Cambridge
1.59
Barnsley
1.59
Mansfield
1.59
Bristol Rvs
1.65
Shrewsbury
1.72
Peterboro
1.76
Crawley Town
1.80
Northampton is 0.28 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Birmingham
67%
Bolton
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Huddersfield
54%
Peterboro
54%
Stockport
53%
Leyton Orient
52%
Reading
52%
Barnsley
51%
Exeter
51%
Wycombe
50%
Blackpool
50%
Charlton
50%
Mansfield
49%
Wigan
48%
Stevenage
47%
Wrexham
47%
Rotherham
47%
Lincoln
45%
Northampton
43%
Cambridge
43%
Burton
42%
Shrewsbury
42%
Northampton is 1.2 percentage points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average possession (43% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Northampton
For 3.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shrewsbury
For 4.5 · Against 8.1 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.4
3.2
3.7
22.1
21.3
22.8
vs Stronger (11)
7.5
6.8
8.2
4.0
3.7
4.4
20.6
21.2
20.0
vs Similar (38)
9.3
9.4
9.2
3.3
3.2
3.5
22.6
21.6
23.5
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
0.0
0.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
48%
50%
46%
44%
42%
46%
54%
46%
62%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
56%
58%
54%
46%
54%
38%
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.3
3.5
3.4
3.6
23.0
23.7
22.4
vs Stronger (35)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.5
3.6
3.4
22.8
24.4
21.2
vs Similar (15)
9.8
10.0
9.6
3.3
2.7
3.9
23.5
22.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
62%
57%
48%
46%
50%
62%
75%
48%
% under line
40%
38%
43%
52%
54%
50%
38%
25%
52%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Huddersfield
11.2
Crawley Town
10.6
Stevenage
10.4
Reading
10.3
Peterboro
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.2
Rotherham
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Leyton Orient
9.9
Bristol Rvs
9.8
Blackpool
9.8
Burton
9.8
Charlton
9.6
Mansfield
9.5
Birmingham
9.5
Lincoln
9.5
Cambridge
9.3
Wigan
9.2
Wrexham
9.2
Wycombe
9.1
Northampton
9.0
Stockport
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
5.0
Lincoln
4.3
Stevenage
4.3
Cambridge
4.1
Stockport
4.1
Exeter
4.1
Crawley Town
4.0
Wigan
4.0
Mansfield
4.0
Charlton
3.9
Birmingham
3.9
Burton
3.8
Huddersfield
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.7
Bristol Rvs
3.7
Barnsley
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Wrexham
3.6
Blackpool
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Peterboro
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.4
Reading
3.3
Rotherham
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bolton
25.2
Stevenage
25.0
Stockport
25.0
Exeter
24.8
Wycombe
24.7
Cambridge
24.5
Birmingham
24.4
Wigan
24.4
Lincoln
24.4
Mansfield
23.5
Charlton
23.2
Rotherham
23.2
Shrewsbury
23.1
Blackpool
22.9
Reading
22.7
Huddersfield
22.6
Peterboro
22.6
Bristol Rvs
22.4
Northampton
21.9
Crawley Town
21.7
Wrexham
21.5
Burton
21.5
Leyton Orient
21.4
Barnsley
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
32.0%
Under 9.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.36
0.79
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.29
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.48
0.30
0.50
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.20
0.70
vs Similar (10)
0.10
0.70
0.00
0.20
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.36
0.64
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.65
0.50
0.60
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.53
1.07
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.00
0.70
1.20
0.50
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Northampton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lee Evans33%
James Maxwell33%
Tyrese Fornah33%
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sam Hoskins33%
Elliott Moore0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Shrewsbury · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison50%
William Boyle25%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arkell Jude-Boyd67%
George Lloyd25%
Kevin Berkoe25%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
Joe Gbode25%
William Boyle0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Fletcher25%
Joe Gbode25%
William Boyle0%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (26)
€93m
WRE (32)
€77m
CHA (29)
€31m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (9)
€46m
CHA (13)
€18m
WRE (9)
€15m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
BIR (5)
€12m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BIR (12)
€35m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Birmingham
Wrexham
Stockport
Charlton
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Reading
Bolton
Blackpool
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Barnsley
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wigan
Exeter
Mansfield
Peterboro
Burton
Crawley Town
Bristol Rvs
Cambridge