In this League Two match, Notts County's recent form note of coming off a draw against Bristol Rovers is a storyline that could influence the outcome. However, the model still favours a home win for Notts County, with a 46% probability of this result, followed by a 26% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of an away win for Bristol Rovers. The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 12.1% of the time. Notts County has a strong home scoring record, averaging 1.75 goals per match, and a relatively low home conceding record, averaging 0.92 goals per match. In contrast, Bristol Rovers have struggled with scoring away from home, averaging 0 goals per match, and have conceded an average of 1 goal per match. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, which has a high probability of 81.1%, as well as the Over 21.5 fouls, with a 70.3% chance of hitting. Notts County has a 46% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 28% chance of losing.
Results analysis
A surprise draw in League Two as Notts County and Bristol Rovers cancelled each other out at 1-1. This result extends Notts County's unbeaten run against Bristol Rovers to three games, having previously drawn 1-1 in their last encounter. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of a home win was not the only one that fell short, as the suggested pick of Home win also MISSED. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit with a probability of 81.1%, while the suggested pick of Over 21.5 fouls also hit with a probability of 70.3%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Notts County win✗ Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.68
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.05
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.18
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Notts County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.17
1.80
1.20
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.23
1.33
1.50
1.14
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
1.12
2.11
1.00
1.38
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.20
1.67
1.07
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.38
1.21
1.67
1.07
1.07
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.61+0.1%
Under 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.18-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.4%
Notts County goals ↓
Bristol Rvs goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
5.4%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.4%
12%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.3%
6.1%
2.6%
0.9%
3
4.1%
5.3%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Notts County goals (down), columns = Bristol Rvs goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bromley
1.89
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Cambridge
1.78
Notts County
1.78
Salford
1.73
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Grimsby
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Crawley Town
0.87
Harrogate
0.85
Barrow
0.78
Notts County is 0.43 points better than Bristol Rvs in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Grimsby
1.60
Notts County
1.59
Bromley
1.54
Swindon
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Cambridge
1.43
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Salford
1.33
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Walsall
1.22
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Barrow
0.98
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Harrogate
0.85
Notts County is 0.37 goals better than Bristol Rvs in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cambridge
0.72
Oldham
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Bromley
1.00
Notts County
1.06
Colchester
1.07
Grimsby
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Harrogate
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Barrow
1.70
Tranmere
1.72
Cheltenham
1.72
Notts County is 0.35 goals better than Bristol Rvs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Notts County
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Cambridge
51%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Milton Keynes Dons
49%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
47%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Barrow
46%
Bromley
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Notts County
For 4.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol Rvs
For 3.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
24.3
24.1
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
8.6
8.1
9.1
4.6
4.1
5.0
25.3
24.6
25.9
vs Weaker (31)
10.2
10.1
10.4
4.0
4.3
3.7
23.7
23.8
23.6
% over line
50%
46%
54%
62%
62%
62%
74%
75%
73%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
38%
38%
38%
26%
25%
27%
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.1
4.3
4.5
4.2
24.0
23.5
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
5.0
4.0
6.0
25.0
22.0
28.0
vs Similar (48)
9.5
9.8
9.2
4.3
4.5
4.1
24.0
23.6
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
52%
30%
68%
72%
64%
69%
64%
74%
% under line
58%
48%
70%
32%
28%
36%
31%
36%
26%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.7
Swindon
11.1
Harrogate
10.5
Grimsby
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Barrow
10.0
Salford
9.9
Walsall
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Cheltenham
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Notts County
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Gillingham
9.5
Newport County
9.4
Colchester
9.2
Crewe
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Colchester
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Chesterfield
4.2
Grimsby
4.1
Accrington
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Cheltenham
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Swindon
3.4
Barrow
3.4
Cambridge
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Colchester
25.1
Oldham
25.1
Salford
24.4
Notts County
24.3
Bristol Rvs
24.1
Milton Keynes Dons
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.6
Grimsby
23.6
Cheltenham
23.2
Walsall
23.1
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Newport County
23.0
Tranmere
22.8
Cambridge
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Bromley
22.2
Accrington
22.2
Chesterfield
22.0
Harrogate
21.7
Swindon
20.9
Barrow
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.6%
Under 9.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.3%
Under 21.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
1.00
0.73
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.62
1.00
1.00
0.14
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.53
1.00
0.56
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.80
0.47
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.55
0.80
0.47
0.29
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.59
1.11
0.44
0.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.83
0.66
0.87
0.60
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (29)
€10m
BR (25)
€5m
SAL (27)
€5m
NC (24)
€5m
GRI (26)
€5m
CRE (25)
€5m
CAM (22)
€5m
CHE (25)
€4m
GIL (27)
€4m
WAL (25)
€4m
FT (23)
€4m
CT (26)
€4m
SWI (25)
€4m
BAR (20)
€4m
COL (22)
€4m
TRA (27)
€3m
BRO (18)
€3m
BAR (24)
€3m
OLD (22)
€3m
CHE (21)
€3m
NC (24)
€3m
ACC (20)
€3m
SHR (19)
€2m
HAR (26)
€2m
Notts County and Bristol Rvs have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (10)
€3m
NC (8)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CHE (9)
€2m
SAL (9)
€2m
GRI (12)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
COL (8)
€2m
GIL (9)
€1m
SWI (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
TRA (10)
€1m
CAM (7)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
OLD (6)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
NC (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
BRO (4)
€0m
HAR (6)
€0m
SHR (4)
€0m
Notts County and Bristol Rvs have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€3m
SAL (8)
€2m
NC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (8)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
GIL (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BAR (6)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
CT (8)
€1m
HAR (9)
€1m
CAM (5)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
CHE (7)
€1m
GRI (4)
€1m
SWI (6)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
COL (4)
€1m
SHR (5)
€1m
NC (5)
€0m
BR (3)
€0m
Notts County's midfield is €1m more valuable than Bristol Rvs's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (13)
€3m
BR (12)
€3m
GRI (10)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
WAL (12)
€2m
CT (11)
€2m
FT (11)
€2m
CHE (11)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
GIL (10)
€2m
SAL (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
NC (9)
€2m
SWI (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€1m
NC (12)
€1m
COL (10)
€1m
TRA (9)
€1m
OLD (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
HAR (11)
€1m
Notts County's defence is €1m less valuable than Bristol Rvs's (€2m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford
Cambridge
Chesterfield
Grimsby
Barnet
Swindon
Oldham
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Fleetwood Town
Accrington
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate
Barrow