PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia gives Notts County a 43% win probability against Chesterfield in the England: League Two on 2026-05-15, with 27% for the draw and 30% for Chesterfield. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).
Notts County finished 0-0 against Chesterfield (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 43% home win, 27% draw and 30% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (79%).
Notts County| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.07 | 1.86 | 1.07 | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.25 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.64 | 0.86 | 1.82 | 0.73 | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Chesterfield| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.38 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.32 | 1.05 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Chesterfield goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 13% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Notts CountyChesterfieldNotts County| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 8.0 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 27.2 | 27.2 | 27.2 |
| vs Weaker (39) | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 23.3 |
| % over line | 47% | 44% | 50% | 60% | 64% | 56% | 73% | 76% | 71% |
| % under line | 53% | 56% | 50% | 40% | 36% | 44% | 27% | 24% | 29% |
Chesterfield| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 21.8 | 21.2 | 22.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 11.5 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 22.3 | 23.8 | 20.4 |
| vs Weaker (38) | 9.9 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 21.6 | 20.4 | 22.9 |
| % over line | 59% | 60% | 58% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 45% | 40% | 50% |
| % under line | 41% | 40% | 42% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 50% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 26/12/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/10/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/02/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/08/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/03/22 | H | 1-1 |
Notts County| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 5-2 |
Chesterfield| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.3 | 46% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.2 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 |  Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.7 | 41% | 24.9 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 5 |  Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.3 | 59% | 4.2 | 57% | 21.8 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 |  Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.1 | 65% | 23.9 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 |  Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 |  Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 |  Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 |  Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 |  Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 |  Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 |  Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |