Nyiregyhaza hosts Ujpest in a Hungary: NB I match on July 24, with Nyiregyhaza coming off a defeat in their last outing. The model predicts a home win, with a 43% probability of Nyiregyhaza taking the three points, 27% chance of a draw, and 31% probability of Ujpest emerging victorious. The expected total goals stand at 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.5% of the time. Nyiregyhaza has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.57 goals and conceding 1.5 per match against similar opponents. Ujpest has been averaging 1.91 goals scored and conceded on their away trips against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.3% probability of hitting. Nyiregyhaza has a 43% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing to Ujpest. The model also suggests Over 1.5 (80.3%), Nyiregyhaza to win (43%), and Ujpest to win (31%) as its selections.
Results analysis
The win extends Nyiregyhaza's recent run, which had been marked by inconsistency. In the end, it was a narrow 2-1 victory at home for Nyiregyhaza against Ujpest, confirming the actual result. The model correctly predicted a home win, which was the pre-match favourite with a 43% probability of occurring. The model's selection, a home win, was correct. The model also suggested picking 'Over 1.5' goals, which hit with a probability of 80.3%. Another selection, Nyiregyhaza's home win, was the pre-match favourite, while Ujpest's away win had a 31% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nyiregyhaza win✓ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ujpest win✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nyiregyhaza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.48
1.64
1.69
1.54
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.83
1.50
1.71
1.50
1.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.63
1.70
1.67
1.50
1.60
1.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.3%
2-0
6.8%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
Nyiregyhaza goals ↓
Ujpest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.9%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.3%
12%
7.6%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.1%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.6%
4.9%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nyiregyhaza goals (down), columns = Ujpest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.09
Ferencvarosi TC
2.06
Debreceni VSC
1.61
Paks
1.61
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.39
Vasas
1.32
Budapest Honved
1.21
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Nyiregyhaza
1.21
Ujpest
1.21
MTK Budapest
1.15
Nyiregyhaza and Ujpest are level in average points per game (both 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.97
Paks
1.91
MTK Budapest
1.67
Debreceni VSC
1.55
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.48
Ujpest
1.45
Vasas
1.44
Nyiregyhaza
1.42
Budapest Honved
1.32
Puskas Academy
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.09
Nyiregyhaza is 0.03 goals worse than Ujpest in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.91
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Debreceni VSC
1.24
Puskas Academy
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Paks
1.39
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Vasas
1.56
Budapest Honved
1.70
Nyiregyhaza
1.73
Ujpest
1.73
MTK Budapest
1.88
Nyiregyhaza and Ujpest are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
55%
Ujpest
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE
51%
Debreceni VSC
50%
MTK Budapest
49%
Kisvarda FC
49%
Paks
47%
Puskas Academy
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nyiregyhaza
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ujpest
For 4.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 15.3 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nyiregyhaza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.4
3.6
4.0
3.3
26.1
26.6
25.5
vs Stronger (5)
10.0
9.5
10.5
4.6
6.5
3.3
23.0
21.5
24.5
vs Similar (45)
9.9
10.5
9.2
3.5
3.7
3.3
26.5
27.2
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
63%
47%
52%
56%
48%
78%
79%
76%
% under line
44%
37%
53%
48%
44%
52%
22%
21%
24%
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.8
Ujpest
9.9
Ferencvarosi TC
9.8
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Budapest Honved
9.8
MTK Budapest
9.6
Puskas Academy
9.6
Debreceni VSC
9.5
Gyori ETO FC
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Paks
5.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Puskas Academy
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.5
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.3
Debreceni VSC
28.3
Puskas Academy
27.4
Ferencvarosi TC
27.4
Ujpest
25.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.0
MTK Budapest
24.4
Gyori ETO FC
24.2
Kisvarda FC
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.8%
Under 3.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.1%
Under 21.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nyiregyhaza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.76
0.54
0.69
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.79
0.57
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.70
0.92
0.42
0.60
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nyiregyhaza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.00
0.87
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.88
1.15
0.85
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.71
1.14
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.00
0.75
1.08
1.00
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyiregyhaza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyiregyhaza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Gyori ETO FC
Vasas
MTK Budapest
Paks
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Ferencvarosi TC
Budapest Honved
Zalaegerszegi TE