Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol' Result & Analysis

Nyva Ternopil are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 64% chance to a home win, 24% to a draw and 12% to a Yarud Mariupol’ victory. The prediction favours a 1-0 result, the most likely scoreline at 13.9%. The expected total of 2.5 goals is modest, and the single most likely total is 2 goals, with a 27% probability. Nyva’s home form is strong: they average 2.5 goals scored and concede none against similar opposition, while Yarud, playing away, averages 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include an 75.8% chance of Under 3.5 and a 72.3% chance of Over 1.5. The home win probability remains the highest, followed by draw and away win, confirming the model’s pick of a home win. The recent form narrative shows Nyva coming off a draw, while Yarud are on a two-game winning run, adding context to the projected outcome.

The upset came as Nyva Ternopil, the pre-match favourite with a 64% chance, failed to secure the win, ending in a 1-1 draw. The model had predicted a home win and a 2-goal total, but the match settled for a single goal each, a 1-1 scoreline. The model’s call was wrong, as the result was a draw. The model’s selections performed well: Under 3.5, with a 75.8% probability, hit; Over 1.5, at 72.3%, also hit. The game saw Nyva’s recent form described as coming off a draw, while Yarud Mariupol’ entered on a two-game winning run. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result of a draw.