Odense are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win at 44%. The expected goal tally is 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance. Odense’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, while FC Fredericia, on the road, averages 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. The match shape suggests a tight contest, yet the odds favour the hosts. The probability spread is 44% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 28% for an away win. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.3% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.8%. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, and no other outcomes are assigned a win probability. This concise preview captures the key figures and the overall expected narrative.
Results analysis
Odense’s recent run, ending with a draw, set the tone for a decisive home victory, as the model’s favoured outcome was delivered. The final score was 3-0, confirming the Home win prediction and the model’s pick was correct. The model had assigned a 44% probability to a home win, 28% to a draw and 28% to an away win. Its suggested selections also came through: Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.3% probability, hit; Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.8% probability, hit. The match unfolded with Odense dominating, while FC Fredericia struggled to find the net, leaving the model’s predictions largely accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Odense win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Odense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
0.85
1.54
1.47
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.18
1.00
1.33
1.27
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.86
1.00
1.33
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.33
1.62
1.38
2.00
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.42
1.11
1.56
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.91
1.18
2.29
1.14
4.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
Odense goals ↓
FC Fredericia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
7.1%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.8%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.1%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.5%
2.5%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Odense goals (down), columns = FC Fredericia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Odense
2.03
FC Fredericia
2.00
Hillerød
1.62
AC Horsens
1.59
Kolding IF
1.56
Hvidovre
1.41
Esbjerg
1.28
Hobro
1.22
B 93
1.09
HB Koge
1.06
Vendsyssel FF
0.94
Roskilde
0.81
Odense is 0.03 points better than FC Fredericia in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Odense
2.16
FC Fredericia
2.03
Hillerød
1.75
Esbjerg
1.62
AC Horsens
1.53
B 93
1.31
Hobro
1.22
Roskilde
1.16
Kolding IF
1.12
HB Koge
1.12
Vendsyssel FF
1.09
Hvidovre
1.03
Odense is 0.12 goals better than FC Fredericia in terms of goals scored per game (2.16 vs 2.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kolding IF
0.88
FC Fredericia
0.94
Hvidovre
1.09
Odense
1.09
Hillerød
1.19
AC Horsens
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.53
Hobro
1.59
Esbjerg
1.75
HB Koge
1.78
B 93
1.91
Roskilde
1.91
Odense is 0.16 goals worse than FC Fredericia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Odense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.38
0.85
0.88
0.12
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.25
1.25
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.41
0.50
0.83
0.73
0.18
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
0.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.62
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.63
1.00
0.67
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.64
1.00
0.57
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Odense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Odense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.46
0.69
0.59
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.76
0.50
0.50
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.71
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.62
0.75
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.79
0.11
0.89
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.55
1.29
0.57
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Odense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Odense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fiete Arp25%
Jacob Bonde17%
Noah Ganaus17%
Rasmus Falk0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Peter Therkildsen0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Viljar Myhra0%
Topi Keskinen0%
James Gomez0%
Ismahila Ouédraogo0%
Marcus McCoy0%
Julius Berthel Askou0%
Magnus Andersen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Gomez50%
Julius Berthel Askou40%
Ulrik Jenssen33%
Marcus McCoy33%
Rasmus Falk20%
Peter Therkildsen17%
Topi Keskinen17%
Ismahila Ouédraogo17%
Jacob Bonde0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Fiete Arp0%
Viljar Myhra0%
Noah Ganaus0%
Magnus Andersen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rasmus Falk0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Jacob Bonde0%
Peter Therkildsen0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Fiete Arp0%
Viljar Myhra0%
Topi Keskinen0%
James Gomez0%
Noah Ganaus0%
Ismahila Ouédraogo0%
Marcus McCoy0%
Julius Berthel Askou0%
Magnus Andersen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Noah Ganaus33%
Fiete Arp25%
Topi Keskinen17%
Rasmus Falk0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Jacob Bonde0%
Peter Therkildsen0%
Adam Sørensen0%
Viljar Myhra0%
James Gomez0%
Ismahila Ouédraogo0%
Marcus McCoy0%
Julius Berthel Askou0%
Magnus Andersen0%
FC Fredericia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Friday Etim29%
Oscar Buch27%
Sofus Johannesen27%
Jonatan Lindekilde24%
Agon Mucolli19%
Gustav Marcussen14%
Felix Winther11%
Svenn Crone10%
Patrick Egelund7%
Anders Dahl6%
Emilio Simonsen5%
William Madsen5%
Eskild Dall4%
Jeppe Kudsk4%
Jakob Jessen3%
Moses Opondo0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Haarbo33%
Jeppe Kudsk26%
Emilio Simonsen25%
Friday Etim21%
Svenn Crone20%
Felix Winther19%
Moses Opondo12%
Oscar Buch9%
Eskild Dall9%
Andreas Pyndt7%
Adam Nygaard7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Daniel Kristjansson6%
Jakob Jessen6%
William Madsen5%
Sofus Johannesen5%
Gustav Marcussen3%
Frederik Rieper3%
Patrick Egelund0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jonatan Lindekilde0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Kristjansson19%
Emilio Simonsen15%
Jakob Jessen12%
Jonatan Lindekilde12%
Andreas Pyndt11%
Sofus Johannesen9%
Eskild Dall9%
Felix Winther7%
Friday Etim7%
Gustav Marcussen7%
Patrick Egelund7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Moses Opondo6%
Anders Dahl6%
William Madsen5%
Oscar Buch5%
Adam Nygaard4%
Svenn Crone0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Friday Etim43%
Oscar Buch23%
Sofus Johannesen23%
Jonatan Lindekilde18%
Agon Mucolli12%
Emilio Simonsen10%
Felix Winther4%
Moses Opondo0%
Patrick Egelund0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Svenn Crone0%
Gustav Marcussen0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Eskild Dall0%
William Madsen0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jakob Jessen0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (24)
€17m
AH (27)
€10m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
Odense's squad is €9m more valuable than FC Fredericia's (€17m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€8m
AH (9)
€4m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
Odense's attack is €6m more valuable than FC Fredericia's (€8m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
Odense and FC Fredericia have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€7m
AH (12)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
Odense's defence is €3m more valuable than FC Fredericia's (€7m vs €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hillerød
AC Horsens
Kolding IF
Hvidovre
Esbjerg
Hobro
B 93
HB Koge
Vendsyssel FF
Roskilde