Odense is coming off a win against Sonderjyske, capitalizing on their recent form to take the three points. The visitors, Sonderjyske, drew their last outing against Viborg, a result that sees them struggling to find consistency. The expected total goals for this match is 3.2, hinting at a high-scoring encounter. The most likely total number of goals is three, and one of the most probable scorelines is a 1-1 draw, with a 11.5% chance of occurrence.
Odense has been scoring at an average of 1.8 goals per match at home, while conceding 1.6. Sonderjyske, when playing away, has averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against opponents of similar strength. The model predicts a home win, with a 44% chance of Odense taking the three points. The draw percentage is 25%, while Sonderjyske has a 31% chance of emerging victorious. The model's selection is the home win, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with an 11.5% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 83.5%, and an edge of 4%.
Results analysis
The win extends Odense's run of form, coming off a win against Sonderjyske. The final score was 1-0, a result that saw the home team secure a narrow victory. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was well justified, given the home side's recent form and the similar strength of their opponents. The model's selection of a home win was the favourite, and it proved to be the correct call. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals, which missed by a margin, with a probability of 83.5%. The actual total goals scored was 1, well clear of the model's expected 3.2.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Odense winâś“ Hit
44.1%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.11
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
SBO
2.16
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.12
Drawâś— Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.51
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.66
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Betano
3.60
Sonderjyske winâś— Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.18
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Odense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.53
1.62
1.54
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.71
2.86
1.50
2.75
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.13
1.67
1.00
1.43
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sonderjyske
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.50
1.43
1.75
1.38
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.00
1.40
2.40
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.15
1.56
0.89
1.91
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.18+4.4%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.47-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.64
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.63+3.4%
Under 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.24-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Under
Betfair
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
SBO
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.0%
@ 2.55+2.2%
Under 3.5
61.0%
@ 1.48-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.7%
@ 1.52+2.9%
No
36.3%
@ 2.36-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
Superbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.37
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 6.72+4.8%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.13+3.6%
1-2
7.4%@ 10.29+3.1%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.91+2.4%
2-0
6.4%@ 11.07+2.3%
1-0 âś“
6.3%@ 9.28+1.4%
3-1
5.3%@ 13.97+2.1%
0-0
5.3%@ 13.02+1.8%
Odense goals ↓
Sonderjyske goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.0%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.3%
12%
7.4%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.4%
9.1%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.7%
5.3%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
4
1.6%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Odense goals (down), columns = Sonderjyske goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
FC Midtjylland
2.33
Viborg
2.17
FC Nordsjaelland
2.17
Brondby
2.17
Randers FC
1.17
AC Horsens
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Odense
0.83
Lyngby
0.50
Aarhus
0.50
Sonderjyske
0.17
Odense is 0.67 points better than Sonderjyske in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
Brondby
1.83
Viborg
1.67
FC Midtjylland
1.67
FC Nordsjaelland
1.50
AC Horsens
1.33
Lyngby
1.17
Aarhus
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Sonderjyske
0.83
Randers FC
0.83
Odense
0.83
Odense and Sonderjyske are level in goals scored per game (both 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Viborg
0.67
FC Nordsjaelland
0.67
FC Midtjylland
0.83
Odense
1.17
Brondby
1.17
Randers FC
1.33
FC Copenhagen
1.33
Silkeborg
1.50
AC Horsens
1.67
Lyngby
1.83
Aarhus
1.83
Sonderjyske
2.17
Odense is 1.00 goals better than Sonderjyske in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
59%
Aarhus
58%
FC Midtjylland
55%
Brondby
55%
FC Copenhagen
52%
Lyngby
52%
Odense
51%
Silkeborg
47%
Viborg
47%
Randers FC
43%
AC Horsens
43%
Sonderjyske
39%
Odense is 11.7 percentage points better than Sonderjyske in terms of average possession (51% vs 39%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Odense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.54
0.85
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.00
0.25
2.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.39
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sonderjyske
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.79
0.71
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.80
1.60
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.50
0.78
0.22
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Odense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sonderjyske over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sonderjyske over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sonderjyske over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Odense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.08
0.69
0.88
0.82
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.86
1.25
0.75
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.74
1.00
0.67
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sonderjyske
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
0.71
0.71
1.19
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.65
0.78
0.67
1.36
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Odense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sonderjyske over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sonderjyske over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sonderjyske over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+4.4%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
SON (26)
€13m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
Odense's squad is €4m more valuable than Sonderjyske's (€17m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
SON (6)
€3m
LYN (5)
€3m
Odense's attack is €5m more valuable than Sonderjyske's (€8m vs €3m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
SON (7)
€3m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
AH (6)
€2m
Odense and Sonderjyske have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
SON (13)
€6m
RF (10)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
Odense and Sonderjyske have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Denmark: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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FC Copenhagen
FC Midtjylland
Viborg
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
AC Horsens
Randers FC
Silkeborg
Aarhus
Lyngby