Odense hosts Vejle in the Denmark Superliga on May 17th. The home side's recent form is promising, coming off a win, while Vejle also secured a victory in their last match. This high-scoring match is projected to yield 3.3 goals on average, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 10.4% of the time. At home, Odense has been scoring an average of 2.1 goals per match and conceding 1.6, while Vejle averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 55%. The model's selection for the match result is the home win. The model's selection for over 1.5 goals is a 85.2% chance. The home win percentage is 55%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 22%. The model's selection for the over 1.5 goals is the model's selection.
Results analysis
The upset of the night came when Vejle stunned Odense 0-1, handing the home side their first loss in five matches. This win extends Vejle's winning streak to four games, while Odense's momentum was halted after a promising run. The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialize, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 55% probability, but Vejle's away win was the actual result. The model's selection of home win was wrong. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, with an 85.2% probability, missed the mark, as the final score was 0-1.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Odense winâ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vejle winâ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Odense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.87
1.87
1.93
1.33
1.80
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
2.56
1.40
2.60
1.75
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.57
2.10
1.60
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vejle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.97
1.40
1.67
0.87
2.27
vs Stronger (16)
1.06
2.44
1.12
2.00
1.00
2.88
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.43
1.71
1.29
0.71
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
5.2%
Odense goals ↓
Vejle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.7%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.5%
10%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.7%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.2%
6.6%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.7%
3.4%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Odense goals (down), columns = Vejle goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Aarhus
2.09
FC Midtjylland
1.88
FC Copenhagen
1.64
FC Nordsjaelland
1.56
Viborg
1.38
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
Odense
1.28
Silkeborg
1.12
Randers FC
1.09
FC Fredericia
1.06
Vejle
0.75
Odense is 0.53 points better than Vejle in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 0.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Midtjylland
2.25
FC Copenhagen
2.12
Aarhus
1.94
FC Nordsjaelland
1.59
Odense
1.59
Viborg
1.53
FC Fredericia
1.41
Sonderjyske
1.38
Brondby
1.36
Silkeborg
1.28
Vejle
1.12
Randers FC
1.03
Odense is 0.47 goals better than Vejle in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.12).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus
1.00
FC Midtjylland
1.12
Brondby
1.15
FC Copenhagen
1.36
FC Nordsjaelland
1.44
Randers FC
1.47
Sonderjyske
1.53
Viborg
1.59
Odense
1.88
Vejle
1.88
Silkeborg
2.09
FC Fredericia
2.12
Odense and Vejle are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.88).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
57%
FC Copenhagen
55%
FC Midtjylland
54%
Aarhus
54%
Odense
51%
Brondby
51%
Silkeborg
49%
Randers FC
48%
Viborg
48%
Vejle
45%
FC Fredericia
44%
Sonderjyske
44%
Odense is 6.8 percentage points better than Vejle in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Odense
For 6.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 9.9 · Total 20.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vejle
For 3.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Odense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
21.7
22.1
21.4
vs Stronger (10)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.6
4.2
3.0
21.8
22.6
21.0
vs Similar (35)
11.0
10.8
11.1
1.5
1.3
1.7
21.7
21.8
21.5
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
61%
67%
56%
22%
24%
20%
48%
47%
50%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
78%
76%
80%
52%
53%
50%
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vejle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.3
10.0
3.1
3.5
2.8
21.0
21.7
20.2
vs Stronger (26)
10.5
10.9
9.9
3.2
3.8
2.6
22.0
22.7
21.1
vs Similar (24)
9.8
9.5
10.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
19.9
20.5
19.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
52%
36%
48%
24%
44%
44%
44%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
64%
52%
76%
56%
56%
56%
This opponent (Odense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Fredericia
11.6
Odense
10.5
FC Midtjylland
10.2
Vejle
10.2
Viborg
10.0
Sonderjyske
9.8
Randers FC
9.6
Brondby
9.6
Silkeborg
9.4
FC Copenhagen
9.3
Aarhus
9.2
FC Nordsjaelland
8.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.5
FC Midtjylland
4.3
Aarhus
3.9
Sonderjyske
3.8
Viborg
3.8
FC Copenhagen
3.8
FC Nordsjaelland
3.6
Randers FC
3.5
Odense
3.3
Vejle
3.3
Silkeborg
2.9
FC Fredericia
2.9
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
26.2
Viborg
24.1
FC Copenhagen
23.3
Aarhus
23.1
Brondby
23.0
Sonderjyske
22.0
Randers FC
22.0
Odense
21.9
FC Nordsjaelland
21.4
FC Fredericia
21.0
Vejle
21.0
Silkeborg
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.2%
Under 9.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.5%
Under 21.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
ð° 7. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (28)
€120m
FC (26)
€115m
FN (34)
€80m
BRO (30)
€54m
AAR (29)
€37m
VIB (27)
€30m
RF (32)
€27m
SIL (29)
€26m
SON (29)
€20m
ODE (25)
€18m
VEJ (31)
€15m
FF (32)
€13m
Odense's squad is €2m more valuable than Vejle's (€18m vs €15m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (10)
€62m
FN (12)
€31m
FC (8)
€23m
BRO (11)
€18m
RF (15)
€16m
AAR (10)
€13m
SIL (9)
€9m
SON (8)
€9m
VIB (8)
€8m
VEJ (11)
€7m
ODE (6)
€5m
FF (10)
€3m
Odense's attack is €2m less valuable than Vejle's (€5m vs €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (6)
€59m
FM (7)
€27m
FN (8)
€18m
AAR (9)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
SIL (8)
€10m
VIB (7)
€9m
SON (8)
€5m
ODE (8)
€4m
RF (6)
€4m
VEJ (8)
€3m
FF (6)
€3m
Odense and Vejle have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€33m
FM (11)
€32m
FN (14)
€30m
BRO (14)
€25m
VIB (12)
€13m
AAR (10)
€10m
ODE (11)
€8m
SIL (12)
€8m
RF (11)
€7m
FF (16)
€6m
SON (13)
€6m
VEJ (12)
€5m
Odense's defence is €4m more valuable than Vejle's (€8m vs €5m).
Denmark: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
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Aarhus
FC Midtjylland
FC Copenhagen
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
Viborg
Sonderjyske
Silkeborg
Randers FC
FC Fredericia