Odishi 1919 is the favourite to win at home against Sioni, with a 47% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw, and 26% for an away win. The model's selection is a home win, with an expected total of 2.9 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability.
Odishi 1919 has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding 1 goal against weaker opponents. Sioni's away form is less convincing, scoring an average of 1.0 goal against stronger opponents.
The model suggests an over 1.5 goals selection with an 80% probability. This selection is the model's selection, with no edge mentioned. The home win percentage is 47%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 26%.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as Odishi 1919’s home form had just slipped after a defeat, while Sioni entered the match on a win. The final score was 0-1, an away win that left the model’s favourite - a home win with a 47 % probability - wrong. The model’s selection was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit with 99 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3 %, Under 6.5 hit at 97.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.1 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.0 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 92.6 %. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and mentioned only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Odishi 1919 win✗ Miss
47.4%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.12
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.15
Betfair
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Dafabet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.08
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Sioni win✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.22
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.31
Dafabet
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Odishi 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
12% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.43
1.53
1.47
1.47
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.67
1.29
1.67
1.42
1.67
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
@ 1.39+14.2%
Under 1.5
20.4%
@ 2.62-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.65
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 2.22+13.8%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 1.58-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.65
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 4.02+10.5%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.16-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
3.85
Under
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
@ 1.94+10.8%
No
41.7%
@ 1.75-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
No
BetVictor
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 5.74+5.2%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.58+4.7%
1-0
8.2%@ 5.97+1.3%
2-0
7.9%@ 8.80+3.2%
1-2
6.8%@ 10.82+3.0%
0-0
6.7%@ 7.08+0.8%
2-2
5.7%@ 14.80+2.9%
0-1 ✓
5.6%@ 7.72+0.2%
Odishi 1919 goals ↓
Sioni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.6%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.2%
12%
6.8%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.3%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Odishi 1919 goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Odishi 1919 is 0.25 points worse than Sioni in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Odishi 1919 is 0.50 goals worse than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Odishi 1919 is 0.25 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Odishi 1919 or Draw✗ Miss
73.7%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+2.1%
47%
26%
26%
covers Odishi 1919 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Odishi 1919 or Sioni✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
+3.1%
47%
26%
26%
covers Odishi 1919 + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Sioni✓ Hit
52.6%
Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.58
Edge
-5.2%
47%
26%
26%
covers Draw + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.5%
@ 1.27+9.9%
Under
18.5%
@ 3.20-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.20
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 2.36+11.3%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.50-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.50+8.9%
Under
29.9%
@ 2.37-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Sioni over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 3.42+7.3%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.25-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Under
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Sioni over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Odishi 1919, so a minus line means Odishi 1919 give that many goals of a start and Sioni receive them. At -1, Odishi 1919 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Odishi 1919 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Odishi 1919)Actual: Sioni
Odishi 1919 -2
11.1%
Draw -2
14.8%
Sioni +2
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Odishi 1919)Actual: Sioni
Odishi 1919 -1
25.9%
@ 4.28+5.4%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 3.62-2.6%
Sioni +1
52.6%
@ 1.58-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.05
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Odishi 1919)Actual: Draw
Odishi 1919 +1
73.7%
@ 1.23+3.8%
Draw +1
15.1%
@ 4.65-3.4%
Sioni -1
11.2%
@ 7.40-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Marathonbet
7.40
Handicap +2 (Odishi 1919)Actual: Odishi 1919
Odishi 1919 +2
88.8%
Draw +2
7.6%
Sioni -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Odishi 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.0%
@ 1.47+6.8%
Under 0.5
31.0%
@ 2.42-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 3.20+6.2%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.28-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.2%
@ 7.65+1.0%
Under 2.5
86.8%
@ 1.06-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.7%
@ 2.03+6.7%
Under
48.3%
@ 1.66-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.64
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.5%
@ 2.56+1.8%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.42-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
1xBet
2.53
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Sioni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Odishi 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
75% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sioni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
0.92
0.75
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Odishi 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.2%
Under 1.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.9%
Under 2.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Odishi 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odishi 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.6%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.5%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
-
+14.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.26
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.7%
1.29
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.50
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.48
-
-
-
+8.9%
✓ Hit
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Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →