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Ogre United vs Auda Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Ogre United
Ogre United
Vs
17%
25%
58%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 61% chance for Auda, a 24% chance of a draw and a 15% chance of Ogre United taking the points. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 11.8% probability. Ogre United, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Auda, on the road, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away +2 handicap (95.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.9%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.4%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%). The home win probability is 15%, the draw probability 24%, and the away win probability 61%.

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Ogre United win
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda win
57.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W10W04L21W04L22D14L23L03LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RÄŖG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.302.070.932.131.67
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.003.001.004.00
vs Similar (14)1.571.571.711.141.432.00
vs Weaker (14)2.860.712.710.433.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D02L11D10W10W10W04L30W10W11DA·GRO09/11H·RIG29/06A·RÄŖG04/07H·BFC26/07H·DIN04/08A·FS 09/08A·DIN13/08H·TUK21/08H·FK 25/08H·SUP29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.371.121.120.711.64
vs Stronger (6)0.332.330.332.000.332.67
vs Similar (13)0.921.311.141.000.671.67
vs Weaker (11)1.270.911.500.831.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
11.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.4%
0-3
6.6%
1-3
5.7%
1-0
5.2%
Ogre United goals ↓
Auda goals →
01234
08.4%12%11%6.6%2.9%
15.2%12%9.7%5.7%2.5%
22.7%4.7%4.2%2.4%1.1%
30.8%1.4%1.2%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ogre United goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
RÄ«gas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Ogre United is 1.43 points worse than Auda in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 2.00).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
RÄ«gas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Ogre United is 0.14 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.14).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
RÄ«gas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Ogre United is 2.43 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.57).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ogre United or Draw
42.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Ogre United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United or Auda
74.5%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Ogre United + Auda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Auda
83.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Draw + Auda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ogre United over/under 0.5
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ogre United, so a minus line means Ogre United give that many goals of a start and Auda receive them. At -1, Ogre United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ogre United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ogre United)
Ogre United -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.3%
Auda +2
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ogre United)
Ogre United -1
5.7%
Draw -1
11.2%
Auda +1
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ogre United)
Ogre United +1
42.4%
Draw +1
24.2%
Auda -1
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ogre United)
Ogre United +2
66.6%
Draw +2
18.2%
Auda -2
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W03L00D01L20W14L21W01LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RÄŖG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.930.270.800.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (14)0.710.710.860.290.571.14
vs Weaker (14)1.070.211.140.141.000.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L00D10W00D10W02L10W00D10WA·GRO09/11H·RIG29/06A·RÄŖG04/07H·BFC26/07H·DIN04/08A·FS 09/08A·DIN13/08H·TUK21/08H·FK 25/08H·SUP29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.500.440.430.64
vs Stronger (6)0.001.000.001.330.000.67
vs Similar (13)0.460.460.430.140.500.83
vs Weaker (11)0.730.360.830.330.600.40
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W00D01L21W03L02L00D02L02LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RÄŖG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.701.130.671.330.73
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.860.860.860.860.860.86
vs Weaker (14)1.790.501.570.292.000.71
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AudaAuda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D11D00D10W00D02L20W10W01LA·GRO09/11H·RIG29/06A·RÄŖG04/07H·BFC26/07H·DIN04/08A·FS 09/08A·DIN13/08H·TUK21/08H·FK 25/08H·SUP29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.620.690.291.00
vs Stronger (6)0.331.330.330.670.332.00
vs Similar (13)0.460.850.710.860.170.83
vs Weaker (11)0.550.550.670.500.400.60
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.9%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Under 5.595.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals94.4%-------
Away +2 handicap94.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.8%-------
Under 4.587.5%-------
Draw or Away83.1%-------
Away +1 handicap83.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals82.8%-------
Home under 1.5 goals78.8%-------
Over 1.574.7%-------
Home or Away74.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals74.2%-------
Under 3.573.2%-------

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Ogre United's squad is €3m less valuable than Auda's (€3m vs €6m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Ogre United's attack is €1m less valuable than Auda's (€2m vs €3m).

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Ogre United and Auda have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Ogre United's defence is €2m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
OU wins
0
Draws
0
AUD wins

Head-to-head

Ogre United vs Auda · H/A from OU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HOU Vs RÄ«gas FS0-3
22/08/26HOU Vs FS Jelgava2-3
09/08/26ARiga Vs OU4-1
27/07/26AGrobiņa Vs OU2-2
19/07/26HOU Vs BFC Daugavpils0-4
06/07/26ASuper Nova Vs OU1-2
30/06/26AFK Liepaja Vs OU4-0
08/11/25AMārupe Vs OU0-1
01/11/25HOU Vs Skanste3-0
25/10/25ARiga FC II Vs OU2-1

AudaAuda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HAUD Vs Super Nova1-1
25/08/26HAUD Vs FK Liepaja1-0
21/08/26HAUD Vs Tukums3-0
13/08/26ADinamo Tirana Vs AUD4-0
09/08/26AFS Jelgava Vs AUD0-1
04/08/26HAUD Vs Dinamo Tirana1-0
26/07/26HAUD Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
04/07/26ARÄ«gas FS Vs AUD1-1
29/06/26HAUD Vs Riga0-2
09/11/25AGrobiņa Vs AUD2-2

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.64
HomeDWLLL2.00
AwayWLWDL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals3.423.503.35
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored2.022.381.69
Conceded1.401.121.65
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Auda
Auda
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.46
HomeWWWWD1.73
AwayLDDWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%54%29%
AVG goals2.502.502.50
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored1.301.541.04
Conceded1.200.961.46
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet36%46%25%
Corners1.00-1.00
Cards0.00-0.00

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RÄ«gas FSRÄ«gas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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