Ogre United face FK Liepaja with the model favouring an away win, the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at a 12.3% chance. Ogre United, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while FK Liepaja, playing away, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. The probability of a home win stands at 20%, a draw at 26%, and an away win at 55%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Home under 1.5 HT goals (93.5%) and Away +2 handicap (92.8%). Ogre United’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while FK Liepaja comes off a win, adding context to the predicted outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ogre United win
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ogre United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.30
2.07
0.93
2.13
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.57
1.71
1.14
1.43
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.86
0.71
2.71
0.43
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.33
2.15
1.23
1.41
1.41
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.40
2.33
2.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (12)
1.75
1.00
2.33
0.50
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
1.23
1.75
1.50
1.78
1.11
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.3%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
0-3
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
2-1
5.4%
Ogre United goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
10%
10%
5.9%
2.6%
1
5.2%
12%
9.8%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.1%
5.4%
4.8%
2.8%
1.2%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ogre United goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Ogre United is 1.30 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Ogre United is 1.00 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Ogre United is 1.75 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ogre United or Draw
45.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
26%
55%
covers Ogre United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United or FK Liepaja
74.4%
Avg Implied -
20%
26%
55%
covers Ogre United + FK Liepaja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Liepaja
80.4%
Avg Implied -
20%
26%
55%
covers Draw + FK Liepaja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ogre United over/under 0.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ogre United, so a minus line means Ogre United give that many goals of a start and FK Liepaja receive them. At -1, Ogre United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ogre United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ogre United)
Ogre United -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.3%
FK Liepaja +2
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ogre United)
Ogre United -1
7.2%
Draw -1
12.4%
FK Liepaja +1
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ogre United)
Ogre United +1
45.3%
Draw +1
23.3%
FK Liepaja -1
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ogre United)
Ogre United +2
68.6%
Draw +2
17.2%
FK Liepaja -2
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ogre United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.93
0.27
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.29
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.21
1.14
0.14
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.62
0.76
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.5%
Under 1.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.6%
Under 2.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.8%
Under
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ogre United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.13
0.67
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
0.50
1.57
0.29
2.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.15
0.62
0.65
0.82
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.2%
Under 1.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Ogre United's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Ogre United and FK Liepaja have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Ogre United and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Ogre United and FK Liepaja have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Tukums