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Ogre United vs Super Nova Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 11:00
Ogre United
Ogre United
Vs
22%
27%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Super Nova, a 27% chance of a draw and a 23% chance for Ogre United. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Ogre United, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.71 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded, while Super Nova, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.33 scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.4%), Away +2 handicap (91.1%) and Under 4.5 (87.1%). Ogre United has recently lost three straight matches, ending 0-3 at Rīga FS, while Super Nova has bounced back from a draw, 1-1 with Auda. The odds suggest a tight contest, but the edge lies with the visitors.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ogre United win
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W10W04L21W04L22D14L23L03LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RĪG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.302.070.932.131.67
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.003.001.004.00
vs Similar (14)1.571.571.711.141.432.00
vs Weaker (14)2.860.712.710.433.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D22D13L30W21W12L20W12L00D11DA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.431.181.291.151.62
vs Stronger (13)1.312.231.292.431.332.00
vs Similar (17)1.060.821.100.501.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.4%
0-0
8.2%
1-0
6.0%
2-1
6.0%
1-3
5.2%
Ogre United goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
01234
08.2%10%9.4%5.1%2.1%
16.0%13%9.6%5.2%2.1%
23.6%6.0%4.9%2.7%1.1%
31.2%2.0%1.7%0.9%0.4%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ogre United goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Ogre United is 0.76 points worse than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Ogre United is 0.17 goals worse than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Ogre United is 2.00 goals worse than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ogre United or Draw
49.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
27%
51%
covers Ogre United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United or Super Nova
73.0%
Avg Implied -
22%
27%
51%
covers Ogre United + Super Nova
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Super Nova
77.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
27%
51%
covers Draw + Super Nova
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ogre United over/under 0.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ogre United, so a minus line means Ogre United give that many goals of a start and Super Nova receive them. At -1, Ogre United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ogre United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ogre United)
Ogre United -2
2.4%
Draw -2
6.1%
Super Nova +2
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ogre United)
Ogre United -1
8.5%
Draw -1
13.9%
Super Nova +1
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ogre United)
Ogre United +1
49.3%
Draw +1
23.0%
Super Nova -1
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ogre United)
Ogre United +2
72.3%
Draw +2
15.9%
Super Nova -2
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W03L00D01L20W14L21W01LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RĪG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.930.270.800.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (14)0.710.710.860.290.571.14
vs Weaker (14)1.070.211.140.141.000.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W11D00D00D10W00D01LA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.470.530.381.00
vs Stronger (13)0.541.150.571.000.501.33
vs Similar (17)0.350.410.400.200.290.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W00D01L21W03L02L00D02L02LA·RIG25/10H·SKA01/11A·MĀR08/11A·FK 30/06A·SUP06/07H·BFC19/07A·GRO27/07A·RIG09/08H·FS 22/08H·RĪG30/08← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.701.130.671.330.73
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.860.860.860.860.860.86
vs Weaker (14)1.790.501.570.292.000.71
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W12L10W10W12L20W02L00D10WA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.710.760.770.62
vs Stronger (13)0.771.080.711.430.830.67
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.700.300.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.0%-------
Under 5.594.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals91.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.6%-------
Away +2 handicap91.5%-------
Under 4.587.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.5%-------
Draw or Away77.6%-------
Away +1 handicap77.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals77.4%-------
Over 1.575.5%-------
Home or Away73.0%-------
Home under 1.5 goals72.9%-------
Under 3.572.4%-------
Home +2 handicap72.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Ogre United and Super Nova have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Ogre United and Super Nova have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Ogre United and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Ogre United and Super Nova have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
OU wins
1
Draws
1
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ogre United vs Super Nova · H/A from OU
DateH/AGameScore
06/07/26ASuper Nova Vs OU1-2
10/11/24ASuper Nova Vs OU3-0
27/07/24HOU Vs Super Nova1-1

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HOU Vs Rīgas FS0-3
22/08/26HOU Vs FS Jelgava2-3
09/08/26ARiga Vs OU4-1
27/07/26AGrobiņa Vs OU2-2
19/07/26HOU Vs BFC Daugavpils0-4
06/07/26ASuper Nova Vs OU1-2
30/06/26AFK Liepaja Vs OU4-0
08/11/25AMārupe Vs OU0-1
01/11/25HOU Vs Skanste3-0
25/10/25ARiga FC II Vs OU2-1

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AAuda Vs SN1-1
22/08/26HSN Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
09/08/26HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-2
20/07/26HSN Vs Grobiņa2-0
06/07/26HSN Vs Ogre United1-2
01/07/26ATukums Vs SN1-2
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.64
HomeDWLLL2.00
AwayWLWDL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals3.423.503.35
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored2.022.381.69
Conceded1.401.121.65
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.22
HomeWLWLD1.32
AwayLDDWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.742.762.72
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.441.481.40
Conceded1.301.281.32
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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