Oldham are expected to come out on top against Accrington, with the home side coming off a win against the away side last time out. The recent form note suggests Oldham's momentum could be a deciding factor in this match. However, Accrington have shown resilience in their away form, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.09 against similar opponents. Oldham, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.36 goals and conceding 0.64 at home.
The model predicts a home win with a 52% probability, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 20%. The most likely total goals are 2, with an average expected total of 2.5. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.7% probability, and Over 1.5 with a 72.5% probability. Oldham's home scoring and conceding patterns suggest they will dominate the match.
Results analysis
The win extends Oldham's run, coming off a win and having a similar opponent strength at home. The final score was 3-0, resulting in a home win, which was the actual outcome. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, carrying a 52% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct, as the outcome matched its prediction. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Under 3.5' hitting at 75.7% probability and 'Over 1.5' also hitting at 72.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oldham win✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied 50.0% · @ 1.86
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.78
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Accrington win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.66
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oldham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.17
1.50
0.79
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.00
1.67
0.67
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.20
1.45
0.82
1.43
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.25
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.08
1.25
1.00
0.92
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 1.71-8.5%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 2.03+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
0-1
6.2%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
Oldham goals ↓
Accrington goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
6.2%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.0%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oldham goals (down), columns = Accrington goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bromley
1.89
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Cambridge
1.78
Notts County
1.78
Salford
1.73
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Grimsby
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Crawley Town
0.87
Harrogate
0.85
Barrow
0.78
Oldham is 0.33 points better than Accrington in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Grimsby
1.60
Notts County
1.59
Bromley
1.54
Swindon
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Cambridge
1.43
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Salford
1.33
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Walsall
1.22
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Barrow
0.98
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Harrogate
0.85
Oldham is 0.28 goals better than Accrington in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cambridge
0.72
Oldham
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Bromley
1.00
Notts County
1.06
Colchester
1.07
Grimsby
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Harrogate
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Barrow
1.70
Tranmere
1.72
Cheltenham
1.72
Oldham is 0.30 goals better than Accrington in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Notts County
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Cambridge
51%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Milton Keynes Dons
49%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
47%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Barrow
46%
Bromley
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Oldham is 0.3 percentage points better than Accrington in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oldham
For 5.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
For 4.1 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oldham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.9
10.5
3.8
4.0
3.7
25.1
24.6
25.5
vs Stronger (7)
11.2
9.3
13.0
2.4
3.0
2.0
22.3
22.0
22.7
vs Similar (43)
10.1
10.0
10.1
4.0
4.1
4.0
25.5
25.0
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
55%
67%
60%
58%
62%
72%
68%
75%
% under line
39%
45%
33%
40%
42%
38%
28%
32%
25%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.3
10.1
4.0
3.3
4.9
22.3
22.2
22.4
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
10.3
11.5
4.5
2.2
6.8
22.6
24.0
21.5
vs Similar (42)
9.5
9.2
9.8
3.9
3.4
4.5
22.3
22.0
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
42%
61%
54%
37%
74%
49%
50%
48%
% under line
49%
58%
39%
46%
63%
26%
51%
50%
52%
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.7
Swindon
11.1
Harrogate
10.5
Grimsby
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Barrow
10.0
Salford
9.9
Walsall
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Cheltenham
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Notts County
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Gillingham
9.5
Newport County
9.4
Colchester
9.2
Crewe
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Colchester
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Chesterfield
4.2
Grimsby
4.1
Accrington
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Cheltenham
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Swindon
3.4
Barrow
3.4
Cambridge
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Colchester
25.1
Oldham
25.1
Salford
24.4
Notts County
24.3
Bristol Rvs
24.1
Milton Keynes Dons
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.6
Grimsby
23.6
Cheltenham
23.2
Walsall
23.1
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Newport County
23.0
Tranmere
22.8
Cambridge
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Bromley
22.2
Accrington
22.2
Chesterfield
22.0
Harrogate
21.7
Swindon
20.9
Barrow
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.6%
Under 3.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.8%
Under 21.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oldham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.36
0.57
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.56
0.36
0.55
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.48
0.67
0.33
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oldham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oldham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.14
0.21
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.64
1.09
0.27
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.60
0.58
0.67
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oldham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (29)
€10m
BR (25)
€5m
SAL (27)
€5m
NC (24)
€5m
GRI (26)
€5m
CRE (25)
€5m
CAM (22)
€5m
CHE (25)
€4m
GIL (27)
€4m
WAL (25)
€4m
FT (23)
€4m
CT (26)
€4m
SWI (25)
€4m
BAR (20)
€4m
COL (22)
€4m
TRA (27)
€3m
BRO (18)
€3m
BAR (24)
€3m
OLD (22)
€3m
CHE (21)
€3m
NC (24)
€3m
ACC (20)
€3m
SHR (19)
€2m
HAR (26)
€2m
Oldham and Accrington have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (10)
€3m
NC (8)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CHE (9)
€2m
SAL (9)
€2m
GRI (12)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
COL (8)
€2m
GIL (9)
€1m
SWI (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
TRA (10)
€1m
CAM (7)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
OLD (6)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
NC (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
BRO (4)
€0m
HAR (6)
€0m
SHR (4)
€0m
Oldham and Accrington have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€3m
SAL (8)
€2m
NC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (8)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
GIL (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BAR (6)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
CT (8)
€1m
HAR (9)
€1m
CAM (5)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
CHE (7)
€1m
GRI (4)
€1m
SWI (6)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
COL (4)
€1m
SHR (5)
€1m
NC (5)
€0m
BR (3)
€0m
Oldham and Accrington have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (13)
€3m
BR (12)
€3m
GRI (10)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
WAL (12)
€2m
CT (11)
€2m
FT (11)
€2m
CHE (11)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
GIL (10)
€2m
SAL (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
NC (9)
€2m
SWI (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€1m
NC (12)
€1m
COL (10)
€1m
TRA (9)
€1m
OLD (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
HAR (11)
€1m
Oldham and Accrington have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford
Cambridge
Chesterfield
Grimsby
Barnet
Swindon
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rvs
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate
Barrow