Olimpija Ljubljana are tipped to secure a home win, with the model assigning a 43% chance to victory, 30% to a draw and 27% to a Koper win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly open affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% probability. Olimpija’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against similar opposition, while Koper’s away numbers are 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.2%, Under 3.5 at 79.7% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 77.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.0% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 71.3%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 71.0%. Olimpija’s recent draw against Radomlje and Koper’s two-game winning streak set the tone for a competitive match.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Olimpija Ljubljana coming off a draw, while Koper are on a two-game winning run. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 43% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 3-2, confirming the actual result. The most likely total of 2 goals hit the 28% probability, but the match exceeded expectations with five goals. Every suggested pick is reported: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.7%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 83.2%, Under 3.5 missed at 79.7%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 77.5%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 77.0%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 71.3%, and Over 23.5 fouls hit at 71.0%. All selections settled, with the majority coming in.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana win✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.03
1.60
0.80
1.87
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.07
1.33
0.33
1.25
1.62
vs Weaker (16)
2.12
1.00
1.78
1.11
2.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.93
1.27
0.87
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.06
0.70
0.90
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.77
2.40
0.80
1.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.9%
Olimpija Ljubljana goals ↓
Koper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.5%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.6%
8.6%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.8%
3.8%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.64 points better than Koper in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.39 goals better than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.03 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Olimpija Ljubljana is 7.1 percentage points better than Koper in terms of average possession (59% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
For 6.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 15.2 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
For 3.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.1
2.4
3.7
27.6
26.9
28.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.0
9.3
10.6
3.8
2.9
4.5
29.0
26.8
30.8
vs Weaker (18)
10.0
10.2
9.8
2.3
2.0
2.8
26.5
27.0
25.8
% over line
54%
50%
58%
39%
33%
44%
90%
90%
90%
% under line
46%
50%
42%
61%
67%
56%
10%
10%
10%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
9.0
7.0
11.1
2.4
2.3
2.5
23.4
22.2
24.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
9.7
7.1
12.3
3.0
2.6
3.4
23.5
22.7
24.3
vs Weaker (14)
7.4
6.8
8.3
1.5
1.7
1.4
23.1
21.5
25.3
% over line
52%
36%
70%
29%
24%
35%
74%
60%
89%
% under line
48%
64%
30%
71%
76%
65%
26%
40%
11%
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.3
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.0
Celje
9.7
Gorica
9.2
Tabor Sežana
9.2
Koper
9.0
Bravo
8.5
Maribor
8.5
NK Domzale
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Mura
4.5
Maribor
4.3
Celje
4.3
Bravo
4.0
Gorica
3.9
Koper
3.9
Tabor Sežana
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bravo
28.2
NK Domzale
28.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.6
Mura
26.3
Maribor
25.6
Gorica
25.5
Celje
24.8
Koper
23.4
Tabor Sežana
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.4%
Under 9.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.2%
Under 21.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.69
0.56
0.67
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.59
0.30
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.38
1.00
0.40
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.07
0.33
1.20
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.71
0.83
0.17
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.31
1.22
0.44
1.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.47
0.40
0.30
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.38
1.40
0.40
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Olimpija Ljubljana · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco43%
Peter Agba17%
Ivan Durdov14%
Marko Brest12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reda Boultam50%
David Sualehe38%
Peter Agba33%
Jorge Silva29%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Manuel Pedreno20%
Thalisson20%
Justas Lasickas17%
Raul Florucz17%
Agustín Doffo14%
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Matevž Vidovšek12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Dino Kojić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raul Florucz33%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Agustín Doffo14%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Álex Blanco0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Dino Kojić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Antonio Marin0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Marko Brest0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Olimpija Ljubljana's squad is €4m more valuable than Koper's (€12m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's attack is €3m more valuable than Koper's (€6m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's midfield is €1m less valuable than Koper's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's defence is €2m more valuable than Koper's (€5m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Celje
Maribor
NK Domzale
Mura
Radomlje
Bravo
Gorica
Tabor Sežana
Aluminij