Olympia Yerevan are tipped to take the match, with a 53 % chance of victory, a 25 % draw probability and a 22 % chance for Araks Ararat to win. The model expects three goals on average, but the most probable total is two, with a 23 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5 % probability. Olympia, on a two-game winning streak after a 4-1 win over Andranik, has been scoring 1.0 goal per home game and conceding 3.0, while Araks, playing away against a similarly-strong opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 3.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99 %), Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Under 6.5 (96.5 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.3 %), Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.2 %) and Away under 1.5 2H goals (91.5 %).
Results analysis
Olympia Yerevan’s recent three-game winning streak carried into the match, as they secured a 2-1 victory over Araks Ararat, matching the model’s prediction of a home win with a 53% probability. The favourite was correct, and the final score confirmed the expected result. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.1%, Under 6.5 at 96.5%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.5%, Away under 1.5 2H goals at 92.6%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 92.4%. All picks were settled, with every probability expressed as a percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympia Yerevan win✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat win✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympia Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araks Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.70
1.60
1.47
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.00
1.29
1.43
0.80
2.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.31
2.14
1.29
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
Olympia Yerevan goals ↓
Araks Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.5%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.0%
11%
6.0%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.2%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.9%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympia Yerevan goals (down), columns = Araks Ararat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Olympia Yerevan is 0.06 points better than Araks Ararat in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Olympia Yerevan is 0.23 goals better than Araks Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Olympia Yerevan is 0.09 goals worse than Araks Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Olympia Yerevan or Draw✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Olympia Yerevan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan or Araks Ararat✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Olympia Yerevan + Araks Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Araks Ararat✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
53%
25%
22%
covers Draw + Araks Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Olympia Yerevan, so a minus line means Olympia Yerevan give that many goals of a start and Araks Ararat receive them. At -1, Olympia Yerevan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Olympia Yerevan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Olympia Yerevan)Actual: Araks Ararat
Olympia Yerevan -2
14.7%
Draw -2
16.6%
Araks Ararat +2
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Olympia Yerevan)Actual: Draw
Olympia Yerevan -1
31.4%
Draw -1
22.1%
Araks Ararat +1
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Olympia Yerevan)Actual: Olympia Yerevan
Olympia Yerevan +1
78.0%
Draw +1
13.1%
Araks Ararat -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Olympia Yerevan)Actual: Olympia Yerevan
Olympia Yerevan +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.2%
Araks Ararat -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympia Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
100% (+74pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araks Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.86
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.7%
Under 1.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.2%
Under 2.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympia Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araks Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.93
0.73
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.17
0.86
0.57
0.20
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.75
1.14
0.86
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.3%
Under 0.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.3%
Under 1.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.1%
Under 2.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →