Olympia Yerevan are the clear favourites for a home win, a verdict the model backs with a 65 % chance of victory, 19 % for a draw and 16 % for a Shirak II win. The team’s recent 2-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-1 triumph over Andranik, fuels confidence, while Shirak II’s return from a win against Ararat II shows a modest lift but still leaves them at a disadvantage on Olympia’s stronger home turf. The model expects 3.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being three goals at a 21 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1, which carries a 9.3 % chance. Olympia’s home form against weaker opponents averages 2.5 goals scored and none conceded, whereas Shirak II’s away record against stronger teams sees only 0.62 goals scored and 5.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Under 7.5 (96.4 %), Home +2 handicap (93.6 %), Home over 0.5 goals (91.8 %), Under 6.5 (91.7 %), Over 1.5 (89.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (87.7 %) and Home or Draw (83.9 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympia Yerevan win
66.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak II win
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympia Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.80
1.00
2.33
0.33
3.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.97
1.21
2.07
1.19
3.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
4.07
0.83
2.67
0.78
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.75
1.67
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.5%
Under 2.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.0%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
6.7%
1-0
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
5.0%
Olympia Yerevan goals ↓
Shirak II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.5%
8.0%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
2
7.9%
9.3%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.7%
7.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
4
4.3%
5.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympia Yerevan goals (down), columns = Shirak II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Olympia Yerevan is 0.70 points better than Shirak II in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Olympia Yerevan is 0.36 goals better than Shirak II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Olympia Yerevan is 1.18 goals better than Shirak II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 2.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Olympia Yerevan or Draw
85.1%
Avg Implied -
66%
19%
15%
covers Olympia Yerevan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan or Shirak II
81.3%
Avg Implied -
66%
19%
15%
covers Olympia Yerevan + Shirak II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shirak II
33.6%
Avg Implied -
66%
19%
15%
covers Draw + Shirak II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5
Over
92.1%
Under
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 3.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Olympia Yerevan, so a minus line means Olympia Yerevan give that many goals of a start and Shirak II receive them. At -1, Olympia Yerevan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Olympia Yerevan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Olympia Yerevan)
Olympia Yerevan -2
26.4%
Draw -2
19.3%
Shirak II +2
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Olympia Yerevan)
Olympia Yerevan -1
45.7%
Draw -1
20.6%
Shirak II +1
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Olympia Yerevan)
Olympia Yerevan +1
85.1%
Draw +1
9.1%
Shirak II -1
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Olympia Yerevan)
Olympia Yerevan +2
94.2%
Draw +2
4.1%
Shirak II -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympia Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.53
0.57
0.86
0.62
2.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
2.27
0.50
1.17
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympia Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.80
1.33
0.00
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.43
0.64
1.21
0.56
1.62
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.80
0.33
1.50
0.44
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympia Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympia Yerevan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Olympia Yerevan and Shirak II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Olympia Yerevan and Shirak II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Olympia Yerevan and Shirak II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Olympia Yerevan and Shirak II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II