Pythia gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 38% win probability against Panathinaikos in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2023-05-08, with 34% for the draw and 28% for Panathinaikos. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Over 21.5 fouls (96%), Over 23.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (86%).
Results analysis
The Olympiakos Piraeus win extended their unbeaten run, keeping their 1-0 triumph over Panathinaikos in line with the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 38% probability and proved correct, as the final score confirmed a home victory. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit with an 86.1% chance, matching the 1-0 result. Olympiakos, enjoying a strong home form and a 2.82 average goals scored, edged the away side, who had struggled to score in recent away fixtures. The match delivered the favoured outcome and the model’s chosen market, reinforcing confidence in its predictive accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus winâś“ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.73
Edge
+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.22
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos winâś— Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 2.02
Edge
-18.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.77
2.40
0.87
1.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
2.26
0.70
2.82
0.64
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panathinaikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.14
0.50
1.38
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
0.50
1.00
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.29
1.38
0.25
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.31-8.9%
Under 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.58+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.9%
Under 3.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.4%
No
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.7%
1-0 âś“
13.7%
0-1
11.0%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.5%
Olympiakos Piraeus goals ↓
Panathinaikos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.2%
7.3%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.0%
2.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympiakos Piraeus goals (down), columns = Panathinaikos goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.34
Panathinaikos
2.16
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.08
PAOK
1.82
Aris Thessalonikis
1.45
OFI Crete
1.24
OFI
1.24
Atromitos
1.22
Volos NFC
1.08
PAS Giannina
1.00
Asteras Tripolis
0.97
Panetolikos
0.92
Ionikos
0.86
Lamia
0.83
Levadiakos
0.83
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.08 points worse than Panathinaikos in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 2.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AEK Athens FC
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.95
Aris Thessalonikis
1.55
PAOK
1.53
Panathinaikos
1.32
OFI Crete
1.12
OFI
1.12
Atromitos
1.11
PAS Giannina
0.97
Panetolikos
0.94
Volos NFC
0.92
Levadiakos
0.81
Ionikos
0.78
Asteras Tripolis
0.72
Lamia
0.69
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.63 goals better than Panathinaikos in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panathinaikos
0.45
AEK Athens FC
0.45
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.68
PAOK
0.87
Asteras Tripolis
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis
1.11
Atromitos
1.11
OFI Crete
1.24
OFI
1.24
Levadiakos
1.42
PAS Giannina
1.47
Ionikos
1.53
Panetolikos
1.67
Lamia
1.69
Volos NFC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.24 goals worse than Panathinaikos in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 0.45).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.43
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.13
0.22
1.27
0.18
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panathinaikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.10
0.29
0.07
0.44
0.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
0.35
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.56
0.00
Clean sheet %
90% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.40
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.13
0.48
1.55
0.45
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panathinaikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.86
0.43
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.29
1.25
0.25
1.11
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
VN (25)
€10m
PG (36)
€4m
Olympiakos Piraeus's squad is €65m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€175m vs €109m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PG (12)
€1m
Olympiakos Piraeus's attack is €38m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€84m vs €46m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
PG (7)
€1m
Olympiakos Piraeus's midfield is €22m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€47m vs €26m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
PG (17)
€2m
Olympiakos Piraeus's defence is €6m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€44m vs €38m).
Greece: Super League 1 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AEK Athens FC
PAOK
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
OFI
Volos NFC
PAS Giannina
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Ionikos
Levadiakos
Lamia