Olympiakos Piraeus are tipped to win, a 49% chance that the Greek giants will lift the ball home. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, with the most probable total being two, a 28% chance. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability. Olympiakos, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while PAOK, on the road, average 1.67 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 97.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 94.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 89.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.8%, Over 25.5 fouls at 79.8%, Under 3.5 at 79.4% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 76.0%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.5%. Olympiakos have a 49% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and PAOK a 22% chance of winning.
Results analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus extended their unbeaten run with a 3-1 victory over PAOK, keeping the home side’s recent form intact. The model had picked a home win with a 49% probability, and the call proved correct. The pre-match favourite was therefore validated. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, projected at 79.4% and ultimately missed as the match produced four goals. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home win, matching the model’s prediction. Despite PAOK’s recent loss, Olympiakos secured the win, and the model’s single other pick fell short, illustrating the day’s selection challenges.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus winâś“ Hit
48.6%
Avg Implied 49.7% · @ 1.88
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.22
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PAOK winâś— Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.37
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.73
2.07
0.86
1.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
2.04
0.73
2.33
0.83
1.79
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.60
1.60
0.53
1.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.86
0.75
0.75
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.65
0.52
1.91
0.45
1.42
0.58
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.8%
Under 1.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.1%
@ 2.42+2.4%
Under 2.5
58.9%
@ 1.53-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.8%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.8%
Olympiakos Piraeus goals ↓
PAOK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.4%
3.9%
1.1%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.0%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympiakos Piraeus goals (down), columns = PAOK goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.34
Panathinaikos
2.16
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.08
PAOK
1.82
Aris Thessalonikis
1.45
OFI Crete
1.24
OFI
1.24
Atromitos
1.22
Volos NFC
1.08
PAS Giannina
1.00
Asteras Tripolis
0.97
Panetolikos
0.92
Ionikos
0.86
Lamia
0.83
Levadiakos
0.83
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.26 points better than PAOK in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AEK Athens FC
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.95
Aris Thessalonikis
1.55
PAOK
1.53
Panathinaikos
1.32
OFI Crete
1.12
OFI
1.12
Atromitos
1.11
PAS Giannina
0.97
Panetolikos
0.94
Volos NFC
0.92
Levadiakos
0.81
Ionikos
0.78
Asteras Tripolis
0.72
Lamia
0.69
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.42 goals better than PAOK in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panathinaikos
0.45
AEK Athens FC
0.45
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.68
PAOK
0.87
Asteras Tripolis
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis
1.11
Atromitos
1.11
OFI Crete
1.24
OFI
1.24
Levadiakos
1.42
PAS Giannina
1.47
Ionikos
1.53
Panetolikos
1.67
Lamia
1.69
Volos NFC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.18 goals better than PAOK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 0.87).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.17
0.93
0.21
0.81
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.96
0.15
1.00
0.17
0.93
0.14
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.17
1.07
0.13
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.04
0.13
1.27
0.18
0.83
0.08
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.14
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.08
0.58
1.33
0.67
0.86
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PAOK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.57
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.61
0.39
0.64
0.27
0.58
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OC (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
VN (25)
€10m
Olympiakos Piraeus's squad is €93m more valuable than PAOK's (€175m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OC (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
Olympiakos Piraeus's attack is €54m more valuable than PAOK's (€84m vs €30m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OC (5)
€3m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
Olympiakos Piraeus's midfield is €19m more valuable than PAOK's (€47m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OC (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
Olympiakos Piraeus's defence is €20m more valuable than PAOK's (€44m vs €24m).
Greece: Super League 1 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →