Orijent 1919 are tipped to win, the model’s pick reflecting a 53% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw and 20% for a Croatia Zmijavci win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 12.8% chance. Orijent’s home form shows a respectable 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Croatia Zmijavci’s away record is 0.93 scored and 1.87 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 74.8% probability, and Over 1.5 with 73.4%. The home win probability is 53%, the draw 27%, and the away win 20%. The model’s selection list also names the Under 3.5 and Over 1.5 picks with their respective percentages.
Results analysis
The upset came as Orijent 1919, coming off a win, were tipped to triumph with a 53% chance, yet Croatia Zmijavci clinched a 1-0 victory. The model’s favourite, Home win, proved wrong, while the suggested picks delivered mixed results: Under 3.5 goals hit at 74.8%, but Over 1.5 missed at 73.4%. Croatia Zmijavci, on a four-game winning streak, capitalised on a home side that had recently scored 1.36 goals per game but conceded 1.14. The final score of 0-1 confirms the away side’s triumph and the model’s incorrect prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
53.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci win✓ Hit
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.36
1.14
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.33
1.27
1.36
1.14
1.31
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Croatia Zmijavci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.0%
0-1 ✓
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.3%
Orijent 1919 goals ↓
Croatia Zmijavci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.0%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.3%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.7%
5.2%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orijent 1919 goals (down), columns = Croatia Zmijavci goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rudes
1.97
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.00
Orijent 1919 is 0.09 points better than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Rudes
1.48
Sesvete
1.27
Orijent 1919
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Dugopolje
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Hrvace
1.09
Jarun
1.03
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Orijent 1919 is 0.24 goals better than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Rudes
0.88
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Opatija
1.15
Dugopolje
1.15
Orijent 1919
1.24
Jarun
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Hrvace
1.45
Orijent 1919 is 0.15 goals better than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.64
0.57
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.67
0.64
0.57
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Croatia Zmijavci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Croatia Zmijavci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.67
0.60
0.67
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.93
0.67
0.60
0.67
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
K1 (10)
€2m
HRV (8)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
RUD (10)
€1m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rudes
HNK Cibalia
Sesvete
Dugopolje
Dubrava Zagreb
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Karlovac 1919
Opatija
Hrvace
Jarun