Pythia gives Orijent 1919 a 41% win probability against Dugopolje in the Croatia: First NL on 2026-05-30, with 31% for the draw and 27% for Dugopolje. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).
Results analysis
Orijent 1919 finished 3-0 against Dugopolje (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 31% draw and 27% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Orijent 1919 winâ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje winâ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.07
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.07
0.94
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.00
1.75
0.94
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.37
0.96
1.80
0.93
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.0%
Under 1.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
12.4%
0-1
9.3%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.1%
Orijent 1919 goals ↓
Dugopolje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.3%
5.1%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.5%
8.2%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.5%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orijent 1919 goals (down), columns = Dugopolje goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Rudes
1.97
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.00
Orijent 1919 is 0.48 points worse than Dugopolje in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.64).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Rudes
1.48
Sesvete
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Dugopolje
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Hrvace
1.09
Jarun
1.03
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Orijent 1919 and Dugopolje are level in goals scored per game (both 1.21).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Rudes
0.88
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Opatija
1.15
Dugopolje
1.15
Orijent 1919
1.24
Jarun
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Hrvace
1.45
Orijent 1919 is 0.09 goals worse than Dugopolje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.15).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.43
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.67
0.43
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.88
0.62
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.59
0.87
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 11. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (38)
€5m
SES (57)
€5m
O1 (36)
€5m
BBB (30)
€4m
RUD (35)
€4m
DUG (43)
€4m
CZ (43)
€4m
HC (29)
€4m
K1 (44)
€4m
HRV (52)
€3m
OPA (39)
€3m
Orijent 1919 and Dugopolje have a similar squad value (both €5m).
Croatia: First NL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →