Orsha’s recent win fuels optimism, while Lida’s two-game winning streak keeps them sharp on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning 45% to Orsha, 24% to a draw and 31% to Lida. With an expected 3.4 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Orsha averages one goal scored and three conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Lida scores one and concedes 2.8 away. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.1% chance of hitting. The match is projected to be high-scoring, and the home side’s form suggests they can break through Lida’s defence, but Lida’s recent form hints at resilience. The final outcome, however, will likely be a draw.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Orsha, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s prediction of a home win incorrect. The model had given Orsha a 45% chance of triumph, but the outcome proved otherwise. The game was a surprise, especially after Orsha had come off a win in its recent five, while Lida entered on a two-game winning streak. The only other selection made by the model was Over 1.5 goals, assigned an 86.1% probability, and it hit as the total goals reached four. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the draw and the model’s misjudgement of the favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orsha win✗ Miss
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lida win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.27
1.29
2.29
1.00
2.25
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.45
1.33
2.17
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.75
1.00
3.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.00
1.86
1.57
1.00
2.43
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.00
4.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.33
2.44
1.75
2.00
1.00
2.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-2 ✓
6.8%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
0-0
4.3%
Orsha goals ↓
Lida goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
1
5.3%
11%
7.4%
3.8%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.8%
3.5%
1.3%
3
3.6%
5.5%
4.2%
2.2%
0.8%
4
1.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Lida goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Orsha is 0.04 points better than Lida in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Orsha is 0.08 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Orsha is 0.37 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.07
0.43
0.86
0.38
1.25
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.18
0.50
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.86
1.43
0.43
0.71
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.00
1.25
0.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.20
0.86
1.43
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.27
0.83
1.17
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
1.14
0.43
1.14
0.29
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.44
0.50
1.50
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Orsha and Lida have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Orsha and Lida have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Orsha and Lida have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Orsha and Lida have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →