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Orsha vs Lida Result & Analysis

Date: 04/09/2022
Time: 12:00
Final 2-2
Orsha
Orsha
Vs
45%
24%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lida
Lida
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Orsha’s recent win fuels optimism, while Lida’s two-game winning streak keeps them sharp on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning 45% to Orsha, 24% to a draw and 31% to Lida. With an expected 3.4 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Orsha averages one goal scored and three conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Lida scores one and concedes 2.8 away. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.1% chance of hitting. The match is projected to be high-scoring, and the home side’s form suggests they can break through Lida’s defence, but Lida’s recent form hints at resilience. The final outcome, however, will likely be a draw.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Orsha, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s prediction of a home win incorrect. The model had given Orsha a 45% chance of triumph, but the outcome proved otherwise. The game was a surprise, especially after Orsha had come off a win in its recent five, while Lida entered on a two-game winning streak. The only other selection made by the model was Over 1.5 goals, assigned an 86.1% probability, and it hit as the total goals reached four. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the draw and the model’s misjudgement of the favourite.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orsha win✗ Miss
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lida win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D11D22D13L12L22D23L00D31W06LA·OSI14/05H·SMO05/06A·ML 12/06H·OST02/07A·MOL10/07H·VOL17/07A·SLO23/07H·LOK14/08H·BAR20/08A·SHA28/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.132.271.292.291.002.25
vs Stronger (11)1.092.451.332.170.802.80
vs Similar (4)1.251.751.003.001.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LidaLida

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-542W04L11D22D10W12L52W14L22D11DH·ML 15/05A·OST22/05H·MOL05/06A·VOL12/06H·SLO02/07A·LOK10/07H·BAR16/07A·SHA24/07A·NAF20/08H·OSI27/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.001.861.571.002.43
vs Stronger (2)2.502.004.002.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.332.441.752.001.002.80
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-2 ✓
6.8%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
0-0
4.3%
Orsha goals ↓
Lida goals →
01234
04.3%4.2%4.0%2.0%0.8%
15.3%11%7.4%3.8%1.4%
25.8%8.9%6.8%3.5%1.3%
33.6%5.5%4.2%2.2%0.8%
41.7%2.6%2.0%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Lida goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Orsha is 0.04 points better than Lida in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Orsha is 0.08 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Orsha is 0.37 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D00D01L12L22D00D10W03LA·OSI14/05H·SMO05/06A·ML 12/06H·OST02/07A·MOL10/07H·VOL17/07A·SLO23/07H·LOK14/08H·BAR20/08A·SHA28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.070.430.860.381.25
vs Stronger (11)0.361.180.501.000.201.40
vs Similar (4)0.500.750.000.000.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LidaLida

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W02L10W10W10W11D32W13L11D10WH·ML 15/05A·OST22/05H·MOL05/06A·VOL12/06H·SLO02/07A·LOK10/07H·BAR16/07A·SHA24/07A·NAF20/08H·OSI27/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.861.430.430.711.29
vs Stronger (2)2.001.003.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.891.001.250.500.601.40
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D11D13L11D10W01L00D21W03LA·OSI14/05H·SMO05/06A·ML 12/06H·OST02/07A·MOL10/07H·VOL17/07A·SLO23/07H·LOK14/08H·BAR20/08A·SHA28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.200.861.430.621.00
vs Stronger (11)0.731.270.831.170.601.40
vs Similar (4)0.751.001.003.000.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LidaLida

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L01L12L00D01L20W01L11D01LH·ML 15/05A·OST22/05H·MOL05/06A·VOL12/06H·SLO02/07A·LOK10/07H·BAR16/07A·SHA24/07A·NAF20/08H·OSI27/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.361.140.431.140.291.14
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.441.440.501.500.401.40
vs Weaker (3)0.000.330.000.500.000.00
Clean sheet %21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Orsha and Lida have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Orsha and Lida have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Orsha and Lida have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Orsha and Lida have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ORS wins
0
Draws
0
LID wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Orsha vs Lida · H/A from ORS
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/22ALida Vs ORS1-2

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/22AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs ORS6-0
20/08/22HORS Vs Baranovichi3-1
14/08/22HORS Vs Lokomotiv Gomel0-0
23/07/22ASlonim Vs ORS3-2
17/07/22HORS Vs Volna2-2
10/07/22AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs ORS2-1
02/07/22HORS Vs Ostrovets FC1-3
12/06/22AML Vitebsk Vs ORS2-2
05/06/22HORS Vs Smorgon1-1
14/05/22AOsipovichy Vs ORS0-0

LidaLida

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22HLID Vs Osipovichy1-1
20/08/22ANaftan Vs LID2-2
24/07/22AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs LID4-1
16/07/22HLID Vs Baranovichi5-2
10/07/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs LID2-1
02/07/22HLID Vs Slonim1-0
12/06/22AVolna Vs LID2-2
05/06/22HLID Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 41-1
22/05/22AOstrovets FC Vs LID4-0
15/05/22HLID Vs ML Vitebsk4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWL0.93
HomeDLDDW1.29
AwayDDLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%29%12%
AVG goals3.403.573.25
Over 1.5 %80%71%88%
Over 2.5 %67%57%75%
Over 3.5 %47%57%38%
Scored1.131.291.00
Conceded2.272.292.25
BTTS67%71%62%
Clean Sheet20%29%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Lida
Lida
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.00
HomeWDWWD1.57
AwayLDLLD0.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%43%0%
AVG goals3.433.433.43
Over 1.5 %93%86%100%
Over 2.5 %64%57%71%
Over 3.5 %43%29%57%
Scored1.431.861.00
Conceded2.001.572.43
BTTS71%71%71%
Clean Sheet7%14%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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