Orsha’s recent win over Slonim fuels optimism for a high-scoring encounter, and the model projects a 38% chance of a home victory, 24% for a draw, and 38% for an away win, making a home win the favoured result. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to plenty of action, with the most likely total at three goals, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5% chance, reflecting balanced attacking output. Orsha averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.33 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, while Slonim, playing away, averages 2.0 goals scored and a clean sheet against comparable teams. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 86.6% probability, and the model’s selection of a home win has a 38% probability. The draw probability is 24%, and the away win probability is 38%. All selections are presented with their exact percentages.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Orsha coming off a win, extending their recent run, while Slonim left the field after a defeat. The final score was 4-0, a decisive home win that matched the model’s prediction. The model had chosen a home win with a 38% probability, and that call was correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.6% probability, also hit, as the match produced four goals. All other suggested picks were settled, and the outcome confirmed the model’s overall accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orsha win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slonim win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orsha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.26
2.26
1.45
2.00
1.08
2.50
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
2.44
1.25
1.88
1.12
3.00
vs Similar (7)
1.43
1.86
2.00
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slonim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
2.13
0.75
2.25
1.36
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
0.95
2.25
0.60
2.30
1.30
2.20
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
4.8%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.7%
0-1
4.6%
Orsha goals ↓
Slonim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.6%
4.8%
2.8%
1.2%
1
4.6%
11%
8.2%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.7%
8.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.7%
4.6%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Slonim goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Orsha is 0.38 points better than Slonim in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Orsha is 0.38 goals better than Slonim in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Orsha is 0.04 goals better than Slonim in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orsha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.04
0.64
0.91
0.50
1.17
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
1.12
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slonim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.65
0.78
0.42
0.83
0.91
0.73
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.75
0.30
0.70
0.90
0.80
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orsha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.22
0.82
1.09
0.58
1.33
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.31
0.88
0.88
0.62
1.75
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slonim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.39
1.35
0.33
1.42
0.45
1.27
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
1.50
0.30
1.60
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
26% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →