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Ostrovets FC vs Smorgon Result & Analysis

Date: 09/07/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 2-3
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Vs
78%
15%
7%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smorgon
Smorgon
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ostrovets FC win✗ Miss
77.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smorgon win✓ Hit
7.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W22D30W33D20W24L40W03L31W31WH·MOL09/04A·VOL16/04H·SLO23/04A·LOK30/04H·BAR07/05A·SHA14/05H·LID22/05A·NAF04/06H·OSI11/06A·ORS02/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.501.403.000.202.002.60
vs Stronger (1)3.003.00--3.003.00
vs Similar (7)2.291.433.000.001.752.50
vs Weaker (2)3.000.503.000.50--
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W14L30W04L20W02L10W11D31WH·SLO10/04A·LOK15/04H·BAR22/04A·SHA01/05H·LID07/05A·NAF14/05H·OSI21/05A·ORS05/06H·ML 03/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.441.332.200.200.502.75
vs Stronger (2)2.002.503.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (4)1.251.502.500.000.003.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %44% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.9%
Under 2.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
3-0
10.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.2%
4-0
7.1%
4-1
5.2%
Ostrovets FC goals ↓
Smorgon goals →
01234
04.0%1.8%0.9%0.2%0.0%
18.3%7.2%2.4%0.6%0.1%
212%8.7%3.2%0.8%0.1%
311%7.7%2.8%0.7%0.1%
47.1%5.2%1.9%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ostrovets FC goals (down), columns = Smorgon goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Ostrovets FC is 0.50 points worse than Smorgon in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.17).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Ostrovets FC is 0.17 goals worse than Smorgon in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Ostrovets FC is 0.29 goals worse than Smorgon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.12).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L20W13L10W00D20W01L00D00DH·MOL09/04A·VOL16/04H·SLO23/04A·LOK30/04H·BAR07/05A·SHA14/05H·LID22/05A·NAF04/06H·OSI11/06A·ORS02/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.601.200.000.201.20
vs Stronger (1)1.003.00--1.003.00
vs Similar (7)0.570.431.330.000.000.75
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmorgonSmorgon

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L00D01L10W00D00D00D11DH·SLO10/04A·LOK15/04H·BAR22/04A·SHA01/05H·LID07/05A·NAF14/05H·OSI21/05A·ORS05/06H·ML 03/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.560.600.200.001.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (4)0.250.250.500.000.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W20W10W20W10W24L20W02L31W31WH·MOL09/04A·VOL16/04H·SLO23/04A·LOK30/04H·BAR07/05A·SHA14/05H·LID22/05A·NAF04/06H·OSI11/06A·ORS02/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.800.801.800.201.801.40
vs Stronger (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Similar (7)1.711.001.670.001.751.75
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.000.50--
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmorgonSmorgon

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D30W03L10W02L10W11D20WH·SLO10/04A·LOK15/04H·BAR22/04A·SHA01/05H·LID07/05A·NAF14/05H·OSI21/05A·ORS05/06H·ML 03/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.110.781.600.000.501.75
vs Stronger (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (4)1.001.252.000.000.002.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.9%-------✓ Hit
Home win77.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Ostrovets FC and Smorgon have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Smorgon have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Smorgon have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Smorgon have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
OF wins
0
Draws
0
SMO wins

Head-to-head

Ostrovets FC vs Smorgon · H/A from OF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/07/22AOrsha Vs OF1-3
11/06/22HOF Vs Osipovichy3-1
04/06/22ANaftan Vs OF3-0
22/05/22HOF Vs Lida4-0
14/05/22AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs OF4-2
07/05/22HOF Vs Baranovichi2-0
30/04/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs OF3-3
23/04/22HOF Vs Slonim3-0
16/04/22AVolna Vs OF2-2
09/04/22HOF Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 43-0

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/07/22HSMO Vs ML Vitebsk3-1
05/06/22AOrsha Vs SMO1-1
21/05/22HSMO Vs Osipovichy1-0
14/05/22ANaftan Vs SMO2-0
07/05/22HSMO Vs Lida2-0
01/05/22AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs SMO4-0
22/04/22HSMO Vs Baranovichi3-0
15/04/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs SMO4-1
10/04/22HSMO Vs Slonim2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW2.00
HomeWWWWW3.00
AwayDDLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%100%20%
AVG goals3.903.204.60
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %90%80%100%
Over 3.5 %60%40%80%
Scored2.503.002.00
Conceded1.400.202.60
BTTS50%20%80%
Clean Sheet40%80%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Smorgon
Smorgon
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.78
HomeWWWWW3.00
AwayLLLD0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%100%0%
AVG goals2.782.403.25
Over 1.5 %89%80%100%
Over 2.5 %44%40%50%
Over 3.5 %33%20%50%
Scored1.442.200.50
Conceded1.330.202.75
BTTS33%20%50%
Clean Sheet44%80%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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