PythiaFootballBETA
In the upcoming match between Ocelul and Dinamo Bucuresti in the Romania: Liga I, the recent form of the teams offers an interesting storyline. Ocelul comes off a defeat, having lost to Petrolul Ploiesti 0-1, while Dinamo Bucuresti is on a high after a 4-0 win over FC Voluntari.
The model predicts a home win with a probability of 43%, while the away win is expected at 30% and the draw at 28%. The most likely match result is a home win, as per the model's pick. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13.2%.
Ocelul's home form is impressive, scoring an average of 1.91 goals and conceding 1.27, while Dinamo Bucuresti's away form is relatively weaker, scoring 1.22 goals and conceding 1.56 against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, Over 21.5 fouls, and Under 3.5 goals, with probabilities of 76.9%, 76.9%, and 70.7% respectively. The edge in the model's selection for Over 1.5 goals is 10%. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
In a major upset, Oțelul secured a draw against Dinamo Bucuresti, spoiling the pre-match favourite's chances. The actual result was a 1-1 final score, defying the model's call for a home win. The model's selection, home win, was incorrect, as it had a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with Over 1.5 goals hitting, Over 21.5 fouls hitting, and Under 3.5 goals hitting. These selections had probabilities of 76.9%, 76.9%, and 70.7% respectively.
Oţelul| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.92 | 1.46 | 1.18 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.64 | 1.23 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Bucuresti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.93 | 1.47 | 0.59 | 0.92 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.29 | 0.96 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Dinamo Bucuresti goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 13% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
OţelulDinamo BucurestiOţelul| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 27.0 | 27.1 | 26.9 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 8.4 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 25.8 | 23.2 | 28.2 |
| vs Similar (38) | 10.2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 27.3 | 27.2 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 26.7 | 33.5 | 13.0 |
| % over line | 49% | 54% | 43% | 54% | 62% | 46% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| % under line | 51% | 46% | 57% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
Dinamo Bucuresti| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 24.4 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 6.6 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 26.4 | 27.2 | 25.3 |
| vs Similar (40) | 9.9 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 23.9 | 22.8 | 25.1 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 13.5 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| % over line | 40% | 43% | 36% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 58% | 48% | 68% |
| % under line | 60% | 57% | 64% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 42% | 52% | 32% |
Oţelul| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Bucuresti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Oţelul| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Bucuresti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.92 | 0.58 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +8.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | +9.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.4% | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | +3.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | -6.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.1% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +5.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/07/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/02/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/04/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/02/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/09/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/23 | H | 0-2 |
Oţelul| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
Dinamo Bucuresti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 8.3 | 17% | 5.3 | 50% | 22.7 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 54% |
| 2 |  FCSB | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 11.3 | 67% | 4.7 | 83% | 25.8 | 100% | 34 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 |  Rapid | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 12.0 | 67% | 5.7 | 50% | 22.7 | 50% | 25 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 51% |
| 4 |  Universitatea Craiova | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 3.5 | 83% | 67% | 67% | 8.0 | 17% | 5.0 | 83% | 20.8 | 33% | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 60% |
| 5 |  Arges Pitesti | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 60% | 5.8 | 60% | 25.0 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 43% |
| 6 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.2 | 33% | 4.6 | 60% | 25.0 | 67% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 46% |
| 7 |  Farul Constanta | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 33% | 8.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 83% | 21.5 | 33% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 8 |  Universitatea Cluj | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 80% | 80% | 0% | 8.6 | 20% | 5.6 | 80% | 24.2 | 60% | 19 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 9 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.0 | 50% | 33% | 17% | 8.2 | 17% | 6.3 | 67% | 25.5 | 83% | 12 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 10 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 10.7 | 50% | 4.3 | 67% | 23.0 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50% |
| 11 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.4 | 60% | 2.2 | 20% | 20.2 | 40% | 40 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 55% |
| 12 | Oţelul | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 26.4 | 80% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 13 |  FC Voluntari | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3.5 | 83% | 83% | 67% | 7.0 | 17% | 4.2 | 60% | 21.0 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 40% |
| 14 |  FC Botosani | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 40% | 7.5 | 100% | 24.4 | 80% | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 15 |  Uta Arad | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 33% | 8.7 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | 28.7 | 83% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.0 | 20% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 45% |