The model favours an away win for Buducnost Podgorica, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 26% draw probability and a 23% chance for Otrant-Olympic. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a lively contest, yet the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Buducnost, playing away against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Otrant-Olympic’s home form shows a modest 2-1 win over Arsenal Tivat and a recent 2-1 victory. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 with a 78.9% probability, a clear edge for a goal-rich match. In summary, the odds are 51% for the away side, 26% for a draw, 23% for the home side, and the model’s pick is an away win. The predicted scoreline is 1-1, and the Over 1.5 selection stands out as the strongest play.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Buducnost Podgorica secured a 0-3 away win, extending their recent form with a decisive victory after a draw. The pre-match favourite was the away win, assigned a 51% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, carried a 78.9% probability and hit, as the match produced three goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 with a 12.3% chance, but the actual result was a clean-sheet win for the visitors. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the model’s assessment and the overall selection accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Otrant-Olympic win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.83
1.87
1.00
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.00
1.25
1.17
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
3.50
0.17
4.33
0.33
2.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.80
2.12
0.69
1.36
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.81
1.38
0.75
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
2.50
0.79
2.88
0.62
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
8.8%
0-0
6.9%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
2-2
5.4%
Otrant-Olympic goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
9.0%
8.8%
5.1%
2.2%
1
5.3%
12%
9.7%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.5%
6.2%
5.4%
3.1%
1.4%
3
1.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Otrant-Olympic goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Otrant-Olympic is 1.39 points worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Otrant-Olympic is 1.31 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Otrant-Olympic is 0.67 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.23
1.07
0.27
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.30
0.75
0.33
0.45
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.00
2.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.75
0.38
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.70
0.50
0.83
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.00
0.33
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.38
0.31
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.56
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.21
1.88
0.12
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic's squad is €2m less valuable than Buducnost Podgorica's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
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Petrovac
Sutjeska
Dečić
Arsenal Tivat
Jezero
Mornar
Bokelj
Jedinstvo
Lovćen
Rudar (Montenegro)