Defensive solidity will be the headline, with both sides averaging under one goal conceded per game against similar opposition. Otrant-Olympic’s home form shows 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded, while Dečić’s away numbers are 1.33 scored and 0.75 conceded, setting up a tight, low-scoring affair. The model picks an away win, with a 39% chance of Dečić taking the match, 29% for Otrant-Olympic and 32% for a draw. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 83.1%. Recent form gives Dečić a slight edge, coming off a four-game winning streak, while Otrant-Olympic is fresh from a win. The match is poised for a cautious, low-scoring contest with the model favouring a narrow victory for Dečić.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, the away team, on the wrong side of the scoreline. The model had tipped an away win with a 39% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely total of two goals, yet the game’s outcome was a draw. The model’s single other selection, Under 3.5 goals, missed despite an 83.1% probability. Otrant-Olympic came off a win, while Dečić was on a four-game winning streak, yet neither side could secure victory. The prediction proved inaccurate, underscoring the unpredictability of this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Otrant-Olympic win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.60
2.14
0.43
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.84
1.57
0.57
1.42
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
0.18
2.71
0.29
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.70
1.27
0.60
1.47
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.62
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.9%
Under 3.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
12.4%
1-0
10.1%
0-2
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.5%
Otrant-Olympic goals ↓
Dečić goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
8.1%
3.1%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
5.5%
6.5%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Otrant-Olympic goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Otrant-Olympic is 0.36 points worse than Dečić in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Otrant-Olympic is 0.25 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Otrant-Olympic is 0.61 goals worse than Dečić in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.13
1.14
0.07
0.75
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.21
0.86
0.14
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.00
1.43
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
87% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.47
0.13
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.25
0.50
0.08
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.00
0.36
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.18
1.29
0.29
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.42
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic's squad is €2m less valuable than Dečić's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic's defence is €1m less valuable than Dečić's (€1m vs €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
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Buducnost Podgorica
Petrovac
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Jezero
Mornar
Bokelj
Jedinstvo
Lovćen
Rudar (Montenegro)