Otrant-Olympic are favoured to win, with a 44 % chance of triumph, a 27 % chance of a draw and a 29 % chance of Jezero taking the victory. The model expects 2.9 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.7 %. Otrant-Olympic, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 2.43 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, while Jezero, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1 %), Home +2 handicap (87.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (86.7 %) and Under 4.5 (83.9 %). Otrant-Olympic’s recent run of LWDLW ends with a loss to Dečić, while Jezero’s last five games (DLWDW) finish with a draw against Sutjeska. These form trends underline the slight edge for the home side in a tightly contested encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Otrant-Olympic win
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
2.29
1.00
1.81
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.19
0.94
2.43
1.00
2.00
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
1.07
2.14
1.00
1.57
1.14
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.20
1.08
0.77
1.08
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
Otrant-Olympic goals ↓
Jezero goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.8%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
1
8.0%
13%
7.1%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.3%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.1%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Otrant-Olympic goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Otrant-Olympic is 0.40 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Otrant-Olympic is 1.00 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Otrant-Olympic is 0.40 goals worse than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Otrant-Olympic or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Otrant-Olympic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic or Jezero
73.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Otrant-Olympic + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jezero
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Otrant-Olympic, so a minus line means Otrant-Olympic give that many goals of a start and Jezero receive them. At -1, Otrant-Olympic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Otrant-Olympic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Otrant-Olympic)
Otrant-Olympic -2
10.1%
Draw -2
14.1%
Jezero +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Otrant-Olympic)
Otrant-Olympic -1
24.2%
Draw -1
21.1%
Jezero +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Otrant-Olympic)
Otrant-Olympic +1
72.0%
Draw +1
15.8%
Jezero -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Otrant-Olympic)
Otrant-Olympic +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.2%
Jezero -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.29
0.21
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.25
1.43
0.00
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.44
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.36
0.46
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.79
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.31
0.43
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.84
0.62
0.38
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Otrant-Olympic and Jezero have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Otrant-Olympic and Jezero have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG