This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.60
1.33
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.09
1.20
1.60
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.22
1.67
1.11
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.59-2.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.31+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%
1-1
10.2%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
4.3%
Oxford goals ↓
Burton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
3.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
9.9%
10%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.2%
6.9%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.3%
3.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oxford goals (down), columns = Burton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wigan
2.00
Rotherham
1.96
Milton Keynes Dons
1.93
Sheffield Weds
1.85
Sunderland
1.83
Wycombe
1.80
Plymouth
1.74
Oxford
1.65
Portsmouth
1.59
Bolton
1.59
Ipswich
1.52
Accrington
1.33
Charlton
1.28
Cambridge
1.26
Cheltenham
1.22
Burton
1.15
Lincoln
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.09
Morecambe
0.91
Gillingham
0.87
Fleetwood Town
0.87
Doncaster
0.83
AFC Wimbledon
0.80
Crewe
0.63
Oxford is 0.50 points better than Burton in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oxford
1.78
Wigan
1.78
Sunderland
1.72
Sheffield Weds
1.70
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Wycombe
1.63
Bolton
1.61
Rotherham
1.52
Portsmouth
1.48
Plymouth
1.48
Ipswich
1.46
Cheltenham
1.43
Fleetwood Town
1.35
Accrington
1.33
Morecambe
1.24
Cambridge
1.22
Lincoln
1.20
Charlton
1.20
Burton
1.11
AFC Wimbledon
1.07
Shrewsbury
1.02
Crewe
0.80
Doncaster
0.80
Gillingham
0.76
Oxford is 0.67 goals better than Burton in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rotherham
0.72
Wigan
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Ipswich
1.00
Plymouth
1.04
Sheffield Weds
1.09
Portsmouth
1.11
Shrewsbury
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Sunderland
1.15
Bolton
1.24
Oxford
1.28
Charlton
1.28
Lincoln
1.37
Burton
1.46
Gillingham
1.50
Cambridge
1.61
AFC Wimbledon
1.63
Accrington
1.74
Cheltenham
1.74
Doncaster
1.78
Fleetwood Town
1.78
Crewe
1.80
Morecambe
1.91
Oxford is 0.17 goals better than Burton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Milton Keynes Dons
59%
Bolton
57%
Sunderland
56%
Oxford
55%
Wigan
55%
Sheffield Weds
54%
Lincoln
53%
Plymouth
52%
Portsmouth
52%
Crewe
52%
Rotherham
51%
Charlton
50%
Accrington
50%
Cheltenham
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Burton
46%
Wycombe
45%
Doncaster
45%
Cambridge
44%
Morecambe
43%
Shrewsbury
43%
Gillingham
38%
Oxford is 9.8 percentage points better than Burton in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oxford
For 6.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
For 5.8 · Against 6.7 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oxford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.3
9.8
3.7
3.8
3.5
22.8
22.1
23.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.7
-
9.7
4.7
-
4.7
25.7
-
25.7
vs Similar (20)
10.3
11.6
8.8
4.0
4.0
4.1
23.6
22.7
24.6
vs Weaker (27)
10.9
11.0
10.7
3.3
3.7
2.8
22.0
21.7
22.4
% over line
62%
73%
50%
48%
54%
42%
60%
46%
75%
% under line
38%
27%
50%
52%
46%
58%
40%
54%
25%
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
11.8
11.7
3.0
3.2
2.8
21.9
22.2
21.5
vs Stronger (17)
12.1
12.1
12.0
3.9
4.2
3.6
22.4
22.2
22.6
vs Similar (32)
11.4
11.3
11.5
2.5
2.6
2.4
21.7
22.5
20.9
vs Weaker (1)
16.0
16.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
% over line
78%
76%
80%
38%
44%
32%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
22%
24%
20%
62%
56%
68%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (Oxford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burton
11.7
Sunderland
10.9
Morecambe
10.7
Accrington
10.7
Sheffield Weds
10.6
Oxford
10.6
Rotherham
10.5
Lincoln
10.4
Doncaster
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.1
Plymouth
10.1
Gillingham
10.1
Bolton
10.1
Charlton
10.1
Cambridge
10.0
Crewe
10.0
Ipswich
9.9
Fleetwood Town
9.9
Milton Keynes Dons
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Wigan
9.7
Wycombe
9.7
Cheltenham
9.6
Portsmouth
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Charlton
4.2
Sunderland
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Wigan
3.8
Lincoln
3.8
Oxford
3.7
AFC Wimbledon
3.6
Portsmouth
3.6
Crewe
3.5
Wycombe
3.4
Bolton
3.4
Milton Keynes Dons
3.4
Fleetwood Town
3.4
Cambridge
3.3
Ipswich
3.3
Plymouth
3.3
Shrewsbury
3.3
Sheffield Weds
3.2
Rotherham
3.2
Gillingham
3.2
Burton
3.0
Doncaster
2.9
Cheltenham
2.9
Morecambe
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Portsmouth
25.2
Wigan
25.2
Accrington
24.9
Charlton
24.8
Sunderland
24.6
Rotherham
24.2
Wycombe
23.5
Lincoln
23.5
Fleetwood Town
23.1
Milton Keynes Dons
22.9
Shrewsbury
22.8
Oxford
22.8
Crewe
22.7
Bolton
22.7
Gillingham
22.6
AFC Wimbledon
22.3
Ipswich
22.2
Cambridge
22.1
Sheffield Weds
21.9
Burton
21.9
Plymouth
21.3
Doncaster
21.3
Morecambe
20.8
Cheltenham
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
70.2%
Under 9.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 3.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.3%
Under 21.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oxford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.00
0.73
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
1.00
1.33
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.18
0.80
0.80
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.56
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oxford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oxford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.20
0.60
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.69
0.83
0.83
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.67
1.44
0.44
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
0.40
0.80
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.56
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oxford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 9.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oxford · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
G. O'Donkor67%
C. Brannagan33%
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Harris33%
C. Brannagan33%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (30)
€392m
IPS (31)
€280m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
WIG (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
MOR (1)
€0m
Oxford's squad is €15m more valuable than Burton's (€20m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Oxford's attack is €5m more valuable than Burton's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (6)
€110m
IPS (7)
€66m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
Oxford's midfield is €4m more valuable than Burton's (€6m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (15)
€125m
IPS (13)
€85m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
MOR (0)
€0m
Oxford's defence is €6m more valuable than Burton's (€8m vs €2m).
England: League One 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Wigan
Rotherham
Milton Keynes Dons
Sheffield Weds
Sunderland
Wycombe
Plymouth
Bolton
Portsmouth
Ipswich
Accrington
Charlton
Cambridge
Cheltenham
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Morecambe
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Doncaster
AFC Wimbledon
Crewe